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Prediction markets for Doma

Will Donald Duck enter the public domain on Jan 1st 2030 as planned?

Nov 29, 4:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

93.69%chance

123672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2353

833

Will .com still be the most popular top-level-domain at the beginning of 2035?

Dec 24, 9:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

83.13%chance

522104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1365

875

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.41%chance

181758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

851

If I use one of the below domains for my app, will I be happy with the choice by the end of 2026

Feb 23, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51407

OptionProbability

podfactum.com

podatelier.com

podfabrik.com

79

56

54

Will .learn be a publicly available Top Level Domain (TLD) by the end of 2026?

Sep 13, 2:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.46%chance

51175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

32

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 6:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.15%chance

16849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

898

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.61%chance

5770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1670

599

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

Jul 27, 4:25 AMAug 23, 11:59 PM

38%chance

8303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

783

Will .divorce be a publicly available Top Level Domain (TLD) by the end of 2028?

Feb 10, 10:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.18%chance

6197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

Will the next sale of the AI.com domain be for over $70 million?

Feb 9, 11:42 PMDec 31, 11:41 PM

36.04%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will .teach be a publicly available Top Level Domain (TLD) by the end of 2029?

Jun 29, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.29%chance

592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

58

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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