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Prediction markets for Domain

Will Donald Duck enter the public domain on Jan 1st 2030 as planned?

Nov 29, 4:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

95.79%chance

122376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3370

778

Will .com still be the most popular top-level-domain at the beginning of 2035?

Dec 24, 9:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.43%chance

512054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1315

885

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.41%chance

171638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

851

Will .learn be a publicly available Top Level Domain (TLD) by the end of 2026?

Sep 13, 2:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.46%chance

51175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

32

If I use one of the below domains for my app, will I be happy with the choice by the end of 2026

Feb 23, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4875

OptionProbability

podfactum.com

podatelier.com

podfabrik.com

69

56

54

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

🌐Which of these domain names will point to an actual website at the end of 2027? [ADD RESPONSES]

Mar 16, 5:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15744

OptionProbability

x.com

facebook.com

fcebook.com

steam.com

twitter.com

elonmusksucks.com

we.com

hg.com

blue.com

rationalussy.com

beer.com

diamond.com

spooky.com

what.com

hug.com

polka.com

cow.com

what.com

rigoberto.com

97

89

81

72

67

66

59

59

59

54

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

49

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 6:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.94%chance

13712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

924

If non-human intelligence is confirmed, was indisputable government-created evidence already in the public domain?

Dec 14, 1:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

69.19%chance

8317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

87

Manifold announces domain change to manifold.com before August 24, 2027

Jul 27, 4:25 AMAug 23, 11:59 PM

38%chance

8303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

783

Will .divorce be a publicly available Top Level Domain (TLD) by the end of 2028?

Feb 10, 10:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.18%chance

6197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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