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Prediction markets for Donation

Will Elon Musk donate at least £10 million to Reform UK before the next general election?

Dec 3, 8:13 PMAug 10, 10:59 PM

6.9%chance

278900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3673

272

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

By the end of 2030, how much Anthropic money will have been donated to charity?

Feb 13, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

131250

OptionProbability

$3B to $10B

$1B to $3B

$10B to $30B

$100M to $1B

>$30B

<$100M

$0

23

16

16

14

13

12

6

Will I donate a kidney?

Oct 27, 5:56 AMOct 27, 6:59 AM

11.86%chance

221091

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1646

859

Will "Consider donating to AI safety champion Scott..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 23, 3:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.5%chance

41080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2080

888

In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?

Mar 4, 1:28 AMMar 11, 4:59 AM

15.64%chance

22709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

970

Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 20, 5:24 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

936

Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?

Nov 10, 8:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.32%chance

16381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

874

Will "Consider not donating under $100 to political..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 6:44 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.44%chance

4353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

954

Will "Don't Sell Stock to Donate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 4, 3:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.51%chance

6324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

995

Will "Reasons to sell frontier lab equity to donate..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 27, 3:32 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will "Please Donate to CAIP (Post 1 of 6 on AI Gove..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 25, 9:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

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