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Prediction markets for Doom

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.48%chance

22150870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2505

1157

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Feb 13, 4:54 PMJan 1, 12:30 PM

25.32%chance

6618823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

880

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

May 14, 7:54 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

12.26%chance

949956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2422

845

Is MCU Dr. Doom a Tony Stark variant?

Jul 28, 5:23 AMNov 5, 5:59 AM

60%chance

322957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40%chance

292050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

712

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

Feb 19, 9:03 AMFeb 19, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

241806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

713

Will someone play Doom on the Moon by the end of 2060?

Apr 3, 4:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.23%chance

231101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

911

Will more than one MF DOOM song be played during the MCU film DOOMSDAY?

Aug 17, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.8%chance

13921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

590

Will someone play Doom on Mars by the end of 2050?

Apr 3, 4:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.14%chance

18691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

895

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Dec 27, 7:40 AMDec 28, 4:59 AM

36.02%chance

21646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

982

Will Doctor Doom be alive at the end of Avengers: Secret Wars?

May 14, 2:36 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

64.4%chance

10559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

744

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.99%chance

13210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

971

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