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Prediction markets for Doom

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

54.8%chance

22150925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

1100

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Feb 13, 4:54 PMJan 1, 12:30 PM

24.24%chance

6718873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

863

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

May 14, 7:54 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

12.5%chance

9410045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2384

850

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40%chance

292050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

712

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

Feb 19, 9:03 AMFeb 19, 11:59 PM

33.35%chance

241806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

713

Will someone play Doom on the Moon by the end of 2060?

Apr 3, 4:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.23%chance

231101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

911

Will more than one MF DOOM song be played during the MCU film DOOMSDAY?

Aug 17, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.73%chance

14924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1699

589

Will someone play Doom on Mars by the end of 2050?

Apr 3, 4:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.14%chance

18691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

895

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Dec 27, 7:40 AMDec 28, 4:59 AM

36.54%chance

22654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

972

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.62%chance

14610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1453

880

Will Doctor Doom be alive at the end of Avengers: Secret Wars?

May 14, 2:36 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

65.73%chance

11599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1385

722

Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?

Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.54%chance

16332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

947

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