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Prediction markets for DOS

¿Partido ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de Honduras en 2025? / Winning party of Honduras' 2025 pres. election?

Nov 29, 11:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2891556

OptionProbability

Partido Nacional

Partido Liberal

Libertad y Refundación

Otro / Other

92

5

1

1

Will I ever get to see the Donald Trump "piss tape", as alluded to by the 2017 Steele Dossier?

Sep 15, 5:23 AMSep 12, 3:59 AM

10.2%chance

294436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2947

409

Will any country adopt a superaligned constitution by 2040?

Dec 21, 10:10 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

39.96%chance

442498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

953

Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?

Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

111654

OptionProbability

Tortaria

Hunan Bistro

Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

Hill Country

Carlotto

Dominic Ansel Workshop

BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

Thai Villa

Bhatti Indian Grill

Brindle Room

Osteria Morini

Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

Tao Downtown

Strip House (44th + 5th)

Keste Pizza

Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

Prince Street Pizza

Dominic Ansel Kitchen

Au Za'atar

Rezdora

Da Umberto

Casa Mono

Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

Scarpetta

Via Carota

Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

Japonica

Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

Naya (four closest locations must close)

Katz's Delicatessen

Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

98

98

73

52

48

46

31

30

29

29

29

29

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

26

26

24

24

21

21

21

21

20

19

18

18

16

12

¿Partido ganador de la eleccion a la alcaldia del D.C. en 2025? / Winning party of the C.D. 2025 mayoral election?

Dec 16, 4:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6883

OptionProbability

Partido Nacional

Libertad y Refundación

Partido Liberal

Otro / Other

61

34

6

1

What will be the lowest cost per dose observed for the R21 malaria vaccine before January 1st, 2026? (currently $3.90)

Mar 15, 9:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6743

OptionProbability

$3.51-3.90 USD

$2.51-3.00 USD

$3.01-3.50 USD

$2.01-2.50 USD

$1.51-2.00 USD

<$1.50 USD

Other

22

18

18

16

14

8

3

What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?

Mar 6, 2:30 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

84.98%chance

3506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

59

¿Partido ganador de la elección a la alcaldia de La Ceiba en 2025? / Winning party of La Ceiba's 2025 mayoral election?

Dec 22, 7:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7266

OptionProbability

Partido Liberal

Libertad y Refundación

Partido Nacional

Otro/Other

76

28

26

10

Which party will win the largest bloc in Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies elected in 2026?

Dec 9, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4223

OptionProbability

PL

PT

PSD

Republicanos

Other

União Brasil

52

28

18

14

12

10

Who DOSsed Finnish Defence Ministry web pages? (suggest answers, may take time to resolve)

Sep 25, 1:19 AMOct 2, 8:59 PM

368

OptionProbability

Russia

Other

Malta

Iran

North Korea

Non state actor

China

Israel

USA

30

12

10

9

9

9

8

8

7

Do you think Russia has some dirt on Trump a la Steele dossier that can explain a lot of his political decision making?

Aug 9, 9:03 PM

250

How many malaria vaccine doses will be administered in 2024?

Dec 23, 6:56 PM

20

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