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Prediction markets for DOS

Will I ever get to see the Donald Trump "piss tape", as alluded to by the 2017 Steele Dossier?

Sep 15, 5:23 AMSep 12, 3:59 AM

10.2%chance

294436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2947

409

Will any country adopt a superaligned constitution by 2040?

Dec 21, 10:10 PMJan 2, 3:59 AM

36.2%chance

452598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

892

Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?

Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

111654

OptionProbability

Tortaria

Hunan Bistro

Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

Hill Country

Carlotto

Dominic Ansel Workshop

BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

Thai Villa

Bhatti Indian Grill

Brindle Room

Osteria Morini

Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

Tao Downtown

Strip House (44th + 5th)

Keste Pizza

Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

Prince Street Pizza

Dominic Ansel Kitchen

Au Za'atar

Rezdora

Da Umberto

Casa Mono

Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

Scarpetta

Via Carota

Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

Japonica

Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

Naya (four closest locations must close)

Katz's Delicatessen

Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

98

98

73

52

48

46

31

30

29

29

29

29

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

26

26

24

24

21

21

21

21

20

19

18

18

16

12

Brazil 2026 Election: Which party will win the largest bloc in Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies elected in 2026?

Dec 9, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5341

OptionProbability

PL

PT

PSD

Republicanos

Other

União Brasil

43

23

15

10

10

7

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Oct 22, 8:52 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

32.85%chance

12312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

108

Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?

Oct 28, 6:58 PMOct 4, 6:56 PM

56.64%chance

285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Who DOSsed Finnish Defence Ministry web pages? (suggest answers, may take time to resolve)

Sep 25, 1:19 AMOct 2, 8:59 PM

368

OptionProbability

Russia

Other

Malta

Iran

North Korea

Non state actor

China

Israel

USA

30

12

10

9

9

9

8

8

7

How many malaria vaccine doses will be administered in 2024?

Dec 23, 6:56 PM

20

Do you think Russia has some dirt on Trump a la Steele dossier that can explain a lot of his political decision making?

Aug 9, 9:03 PM

250

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