Dot Com News

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

7210411

OptionVotes

YES

4186

2254

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Jan 5, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.24%chance

323973

OptionVotes

YES

121

Us market crash in 2026?

Jan 10, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.43%chance

311818

OptionVotes

YES

210

Is normal-play dots-and-boxes PSPACE-complete (YES) or in NP (NO)?

Nov 24, 9:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.13%chance

8393

OptionVotes

YES

198

147

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Mar 8, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12205

OptionProbability

Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe

Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion

Other

Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

May 14, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.74%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

117

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?

May 14, 1:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

150

Bounty for UIUC students & professors

Nov 19, 11:29 PM

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

280

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AI bubble pops in 2026?

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Us market crash in 2026?

Is normal-play dots-and-boxes PSPACE-complete (YES) or in NP (NO)?

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?

Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?

Bounty for UIUC students & professors

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

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