Dot Com News

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.55%chance

628197

OptionVotes

YES

3254

2534

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Jan 5, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11%chance

253677

OptionVotes

YES

285

Us market crash in 2026?

Jan 10, 6:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

24867

OptionVotes

YES

131

Is normal-play dots-and-boxes PSPACE-complete (YES) or in NP (NO)?

Nov 24, 9:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.13%chance

8393

OptionVotes

YES

198

147

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

Mar 8, 7:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7147

OptionProbability

Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe

Other

Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion

Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

270

Bounty for UIUC students & professors

Nov 19, 11:29 PM

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AI bubble pops in 2026?

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Us market crash in 2026?

Is normal-play dots-and-boxes PSPACE-complete (YES) or in NP (NO)?

AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Bounty for UIUC students & professors

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