OptionVotes
YES
NO
5343
2013
107
93
298
34
OptionProbability
Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe
Hyperexponential (indicates push for ASI and some real self improvement loop) singularity / intelligence explosion
Other
Linear (some level of saturation, no AGI imminent)
31
30
9
166
60
150
67