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Prediction markets for Double AI

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.53%chance

1418546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

601

Will AI double the human lifespan within 5 years? (Before february 2030)

Feb 4, 3:32 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

6.17%chance

225276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3898

257

Will AI double the human lifespan within 10 years? (Before february 2035)

Feb 4, 3:32 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

32.6%chance

142805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1438

695

Will weakly general AI double US total factor productivity growth within ten years?

Sep 17, 6:28 AMDec 25, 4:59 AM

70%chance

10538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

130

Will there be double the units sold of the Apple Vision Air than the Apple Vision Pro by 2026?

Feb 5, 12:15 PMFeb 8, 4:59 AM

18.14%chance

9280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

46

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 1 year?

Feb 3, 9:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.62%chance

7181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

342

100

NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026

May 19, 12:12 PMJan 1, 10:47 AM

39.9%chance

7151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

81

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years?

Feb 3, 9:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.42%chance

4124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

255

100

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 10 years?

Feb 3, 9:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

100

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 7 years?

Feb 3, 9:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.58%chance

337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

100

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 3 years?

Feb 3, 9:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.46%chance

232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

101

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 5 years?

Feb 3, 9:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

101

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