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Prediction markets for Double AI

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5531824

OptionProbability

<3 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

3.5-4 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

3-3.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

17

15

13

12

11

10

7

7

4

4

Will AI double the human lifespan within 5 years? (Before february 2030)

Feb 4, 3:32 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

4.29%chance

266102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4724

212

Will AI double the human lifespan within 10 years? (Before february 2035)

Feb 4, 3:32 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

25.51%chance

173076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1709

585

Will there be double the units sold of the Apple Vision Air than the Apple Vision Pro by 2026?

Feb 5, 12:15 PMFeb 8, 4:59 AM

1.46%chance

111041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

837

11

Will weakly general AI double US total factor productivity growth within ten years?

Sep 17, 6:28 AMDec 25, 4:59 AM

70%chance

10538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

182

130

NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026

May 19, 12:12 PMJan 1, 10:47 AM

23.4%chance

8211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

57

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 1 year?

Feb 3, 9:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.62%chance

7181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

342

100

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years?

Feb 3, 9:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.42%chance

4124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

255

100

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 10 years?

Feb 3, 9:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72%chance

360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

100

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 7 years?

Feb 3, 9:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.58%chance

337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

100

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 5 years?

Feb 3, 9:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.95%chance

232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

111

When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 3 years?

Feb 3, 9:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.46%chance

232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

101

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