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Prediction markets for Double or Nothing

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

1%chance

64117559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111094

6240

What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7647518

OptionProbability

3.5-4 months

3-3.5 months

4-4.5 months

4.5-5 months

<3 months

>7 months

5-5.5 months

5.5-6 months

6-6.5 months

6.5-7 months

25

20

17

14

7

5

4

3

3

2

Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?

May 13, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.83%chance

315588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3263

228

Will the World's GDP double in 10 years?

Jan 2, 10:55 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

55.04%chance

374122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1321

215

Will AI double the human lifespan within 10 years? (Before february 2035)

Feb 4, 3:32 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

16.14%chance

193685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2280

439

Will a Superbowl Game go to Double Overtime before the end of the 2030 Superbowl?

Feb 12, 3:07 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

9.49%chance

171423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2070

807

Will China double its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 warheads before 2030?

Feb 3, 8:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.28%chance

351418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1493

704

Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Putin used impersonators, decoys, body doubles to represent Russia?

Jan 9, 7:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

88.85%chance

51400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2363

692

When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMAug 13, 9:59 PM

28.97%chance

191311

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1573

617

Pickleball tournament uses variable paddle rules for mixed doubles

Oct 1, 6:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

17.79%chance

21150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2150

465

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.68%chance

4780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4261

3904

Will humans make breakthroughs, that would at minimum double the lifespan of a willing 30yo with high resources?

Dec 13, 3:44 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14%chance

14456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

954

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