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Prediction markets for Down

If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)

Mar 4, 3:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

95.86%chance

23695344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

35095

3769

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

4569704

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

77

50

0

0

0

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.68%chance

3812285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19786

5802

Will this question get 100k traders before Manifold shuts down?

Apr 18, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.42%chance

157995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2540

394

Will meta announce Its shutting down its metaverse by the end of 2026?

Mar 7, 3:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.09%chance

854276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2020

1054

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.83%chance

241468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1464

683

Will any US state shut down all of its international airports for any length of time by end 2025?

Sep 7, 5:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.9%chance

311378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

978

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Humanoid robots walking down the street by EOY2035?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.21%chance

5760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1801

903

Will CS degrees trend down?

Mar 20, 10:58 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28.41%chance

22524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1021

980

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

55.52%chance

6275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1117

895

Will I find a way to archive Mojang's JIRA/Atlassian instance before it goes down? (Please make suggestions.)

Jun 19, 12:59 AMJan 2, 1:55 AM

50.75%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

985

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