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Prediction markets for Downward

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

815

In what decade will we have space elevators

Mar 10, 3:38 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

283369

OptionProbability

Later or never

2050's

2040's

2030's

59

15

14

11

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

58.35%chance

441723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

786

Will the number of active English Wikipedia editors decrease by 2030?

Sep 4, 5:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64%chance

26883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

125

Elon Musk enters rehab in 2025?

Apr 9, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.58%chance

23718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

349

29

Are we getting less intelligent? Will our IQ scores get lower from now onwards? Are we headed for idiocracy?

Sep 3, 8:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.22%chance

23500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

893

Will the 5 year trend from 2020->2025 in CA wildfire acreage be downward

Dec 29, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.65%chance

12412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

397

109

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

Will the Great Salt Lake be below 4,188ft at the beginning of 2030

Mar 29, 8:38 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

43.97%chance

9293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

343

288

Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2026?

Feb 24, 9:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.02%chance

3146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

75

Will 2028 SAT scores be higher than 2022 SAT scores if the Department of Education is abolished by DOGE?

Feb 5, 6:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43%chance

6109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

How high will the industry average german THG quota payout tonne of CO2 be in 2025?

Jan 2, 10:37 AMFeb 28, 10:59 PM

249

OptionProbability

90€ - <100€

80€ - <90€

100€ - <120€

≥200€

120€ - <140€

60€ - <70€

70€ - <80€

140€ - <160€

<40€

40€ - <50€

50€ - <60€

160€ - <180€

180€ - <200€

15

14

12

10

9

7

7

7

4

4

4

4

4

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