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Prediction markets for Drift
OptionProbability
100
47
42
27
20
13
10
10
9
7
7
6
5
5
4
3
3
OptionProbability
80
12
7
2
OptionProbability
49
30
10
6
3
1
OptionVotes
1639
13
Will Drift0r's medical problem be found before 2027?
Aug 4, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.32%chance
10978
OptionVotes
1192
839
Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?
Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
22.39%chance
16948
OptionVotes
1497
789
OptionVotes
1215
880
OptionVotes
1454
688
OptionVotes
555
65
By what date will encoded reasoning via linguistic drift be demonstrated in a SOTA reasoning model?
Oct 10, 11:10 AMJan 1, 12:04 PM
2215
OptionProbability
79
76
73
63
58
53
48
43
0
Will ASI say jim’s true preference is not to change his personality at all?
Jun 14, 6:18 AMJun 14, 6:18 AM
26.46%chance
6174
OptionVotes
1019
944
Will the US labor force participation rate drop below 60% by EoY 2028?
Oct 13, 6:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.51%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
942


