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Prediction markets for Driven

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)?

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57%chance

454982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3038

945

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will a country ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving in at least one city center by the end of 2040?

Mar 18, 10:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.16%chance

433389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

794

By what year will a car have driven between New York and San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat?

Sep 9, 2:37 PMDec 13, 4:59 AM

193356

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

80

73

65

25

9

0

Will most miles in the US be driven by hail-on-demand robotaxis in 2030?

Jan 4, 12:20 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.01%chance

211307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

867

Which country will be the first to ban human driven cars in favor of AI self driving cars in their capital city?

Mar 18, 10:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

331062

OptionProbability

Other

Singapore

France

China

South Korea

Germany

Japan

USA

Qatar

Iceland

Estonia

Moldova

North Korea

54

23

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

Will a city ban manually driven cars on at least one public road/lane by 2030?

May 23, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.24%chance

15416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

901

Will "US forces in Syria and Iraq will be driven out within 2 - 3 years"?

Aug 27, 10:30 PMSep 4, 9:59 PM

19.4%chance

5341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

74

What will be the established name for the phenomenon of AI-driven job loss?

Jun 1, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:53 PM

8306

OptionProbability

No convergence on a term by EOY 2027

The Jobpocalypse

Other

The Great Automation

Jobquake(s)

AI job displacement

42

29

24

2

2

2

By 2027, will an AI-driven robot (maybe humanoid) conduct a full symphony orchestra in a live public performance?

May 19, 3:42 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

19.6%chance

10184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

167

Will there be subcritical accelerator-driven fission plants by 2050?

Jul 11, 9:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.37%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

95

53

Will Congress pass a law banning the sale of Human Driven cars to the average consumer by the end of 2040?

Jun 18, 5:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.26%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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