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Prediction markets for DROP

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

64%chance

262135244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

751

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80.27%chance

4726263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3926

1996

When will the human population drop below 1 billion

Jun 29, 2:26 PMJan 1, 1:59 PM

7112682

OptionProbability

After 2100

Never

2040s

2030s

2050s

2020s

2060s

2070s

2080s

2090s

76

7

5

4

3

1

1

1

1

1

Will US Housing Prices Drop by 20%+ by the End of 2030?

Jun 14, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

3011263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Mar 8, 1:23 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

14.42%chance

9611055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2522

274

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

19.29%chance

555029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2015

243

Will GPT-image-2 's LMArena score drop meaningfully, 1 month after release?

Apr 21, 9:15 PMMay 21, 9:12 PM

98.36%chance

184721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3663

20

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.3%chance

403871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

964

Will Chinese economic growth drop below the upper middle-income GDP growth average in any year before 2031?

Jan 10, 11:14 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

64.68%chance

391435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

889

Will US automotive deaths drop below 30,000/yr by the end of 2029?

Mar 4, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.53%chance

14386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

923

Will the iPhone market share drop below 20% worldwide in the next 10 years?

Jan 17, 10:25 AMJan 17, 10:59 PM

27.63%chance

12372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

961

Will the annual death rate at age 100 in the US drop below 1% before 2050?

Jul 19, 3:28 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

47.41%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

949

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