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OptionProbability
Dan Campbell - Detroit Lions (2021)
Kyle Shanahan - San Francisco 49ers (2017)
Sean McVay - Los Angeles Rams (2017)
Zac Taylor - Cincinnati Bengals (2019)
Matt LaFleur - Green Bay Packers (2019)
Todd Bowles - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2022)
Kevin O'Connell - Minnesota Vikings (2022)
DeMarco Ryans - Houston Texans (2023)
Sean Payton - Denver Broncos (2023)
Shane Steichan - Indianapolis Colts (2023)
Nick Sirianni - Philadelphia Eagles (2021)
Andy Reid - Kansas City Chiefs (2013)
M̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶T̶o̶m̶l̶i̶n̶ ̶-̶ ̶P̶i̶t̶t̶s̶b̶u̶r̶g̶h̶ ̶S̶t̶e̶e̶l̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶0̶7̶)̶
J̶o̶h̶n̶ ̶H̶a̶r̶b̶a̶u̶g̶h̶ ̶-̶ ̶B̶a̶l̶t̶i̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶R̶a̶v̶e̶n̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶0̶8̶)̶
S̶e̶a̶n̶ ̶M̶c̶D̶e̶r̶m̶o̶t̶t̶ ̶-̶ ̶B̶u̶f̶f̶a̶l̶o̶ ̶B̶i̶l̶l̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶1̶7̶)̶
K̶e̶v̶i̶n̶ ̶S̶t̶e̶f̶a̶n̶s̶k̶i̶ ̶-̶ ̶C̶l̶e̶v̶e̶l̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶B̶r̶o̶w̶n̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶2̶0̶)̶
M̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶M̶c̶C̶a̶r̶t̶h̶y̶ ̶-̶ ̶D̶a̶l̶l̶a̶s̶ ̶C̶o̶w̶b̶o̶y̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶2̶0̶)̶ ̶-̶ ̶L̶e̶t̶ ̶G̶o̶ ̶1̶/̶1̶3̶/̶2̶0̶2̶5̶
R̶o̶b̶e̶r̶t̶ ̶S̶a̶l̶e̶h̶ ̶-̶ ̶N̶e̶w̶ ̶Y̶o̶r̶k̶ ̶J̶e̶t̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶2̶1̶)̶ ̶-̶ ̶F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶(̶1̶0̶/̶7̶/̶2̶0̶2̶4̶)̶
M̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶M̶c̶D̶a̶n̶i̶e̶l̶ ̶-̶ ̶M̶i̶a̶m̶i̶ ̶D̶o̶l̶p̶h̶i̶n̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶2̶2̶)̶
̶B̶r̶i̶a̶n̶ ̶D̶a̶b̶o̶l̶l̶ ̶-̶ ̶N̶e̶w̶ ̶Y̶o̶r̶k̶ ̶G̶i̶a̶n̶t̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶2̶2̶)̶ ̶-̶1̶1̶/̶1̶0̶/̶2̶0̶2̶5̶
D̶o̶u̶g̶ ̶P̶e̶d̶e̶r̶s̶o̶n̶ ̶-̶ ̶J̶a̶c̶k̶s̶o̶n̶v̶i̶l̶l̶e̶ ̶J̶a̶g̶u̶a̶r̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶2̶2̶)̶ ̶-̶ ̶F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶(̶1̶/̶6̶/̶2̶0̶2̶5̶)̶
A̶n̶t̶o̶n̶i̶o̶ ̶P̶i̶e̶r̶c̶e̶ ̶-̶ ̶L̶a̶s̶ ̶V̶e̶g̶a̶s̶ ̶R̶a̶i̶d̶e̶r̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶2̶3̶)̶ ̶-̶ ̶F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶(̶1̶/̶7̶/̶2̶0̶2̶5̶)̶
B̶̶i̶̶l̶̶l̶̶ B̶̶e̶̶l̶̶i̶̶c̶̶h̶̶i̶̶c̶̶k̶̶ -̶̶ N̶̶e̶̶w̶̶ E̶̶n̶̶g̶̶l̶̶a̶̶n̶̶d̶̶ P̶̶a̶̶t̶̶r̶̶i̶̶o̶̶t̶̶s̶̶ (̶̶2̶̶0̶̶0̶̶0̶̶)̶̶ -̶ F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ (̶1̶/1̶1̶/2̶0̶2̶3̶)̶
P̶e̶t̶e̶ C̶a̶r̶r̶o̶l̶l̶ -̶ S̶e̶a̶t̶t̶l̶e̶ S̶e̶a̶h̶a̶w̶k̶s̶ (̶2̶0̶1̶0̶) -̶ F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ (̶1̶/1̶0̶/2̶0̶2̶3̶)̶
M̶i̶k̶e̶ V̶r̶a̶b̶e̶l̶ -̶ T̶e̶n̶n̶e̶s̶s̶e̶e̶ T̶i̶t̶a̶n̶s̶ (̶2̶0̶̶1̶̶8̶̶)̶ F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ (̶1̶/9̶/2̶0̶2̶3̶)
R̶o̶n̶ R̶i̶v̶e̶r̶a̶ -̶ W̶a̶s̶h̶i̶n̶g̶t̶o̶n̶ C̶o̶m̶m̶a̶n̶d̶e̶r̶s̶ (̶2̶0̶2̶0̶)̶ -̶ F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ (̶1̶/8̶/2̶0̶2̶3̶)̶
B̶r̶a̶n̶d̶o̶n̶ S̶t̶a̶l̶e̶y̶ -̶ L̶o̶s̶ A̶n̶g̶e̶l̶e̶s̶ C̶h̶a̶r̶g̶e̶r̶s̶ (̶2̶0̶2̶1̶)̶ -̶ F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ (̶̶12/1̶5̶/2̶̶0̶̶2̶̶3̶̶)̶̶
A̶r̶t̶h̶u̶r̶ S̶m̶i̶t̶h̶ -̶ A̶t̶l̶a̶n̶t̶a̶ F̶a̶l̶c̶o̶n̶s̶ (̶2̶0̶2̶1̶)̶ -̶ F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ (̶1̶/8̶/2̶0̶2̶3̶)̶
M̶a̶t̶t̶ ̶E̶b̶e̶r̶f̶l̶u̶s̶ ̶-̶ ̶C̶h̶i̶c̶a̶g̶o̶ ̶B̶e̶a̶r̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶2̶2̶)̶ ̶-̶ ̶F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶(̶1̶1̶/̶2̶9̶/̶2̶0̶2̶4̶)̶
D̶̶̶e̶̶̶n̶̶̶n̶̶̶i̶̶̶s̶̶̶ ̶̶̶A̶̶̶l̶̶̶l̶̶̶e̶̶̶n̶̶̶ ̶̶̶-̶̶̶ ̶̶̶N̶̶̶e̶̶̶w̶̶̶ ̶̶̶O̶̶̶r̶̶̶l̶̶̶e̶̶̶a̶̶̶n̶̶̶s̶̶̶ ̶̶̶S̶̶̶a̶̶̶i̶̶̶n̶̶̶t̶̶̶s̶̶̶ ̶̶̶(̶̶̶2̶̶̶0̶̶̶2̶̶̶2̶̶̶)̶̶̶ ̶-̶ ̶F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ ̶1̶1̶/̶4̶/̶2̶0̶2̶4̶
F̶r̶a̶n̶k̶ R̶e̶i̶c̶h̶ -̶ C̶a̶r̶o̶l̶i̶n̶a̶ P̶a̶n̶t̶h̶e̶r̶s̶ (̶2̶0̶2̶3̶)̶ -̶ F̶i̶r̶e̶d̶ (̶N̶o̶v̶ 2̶3̶r̶d̶, 2̶0̶2̶3̶)̶
J̶o̶n̶a̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶G̶a̶n̶n̶o̶n̶ ̶-̶ ̶A̶r̶i̶z̶o̶n̶a̶ ̶C̶a̶r̶d̶i̶n̶a̶l̶s̶ ̶(̶2̶0̶2̶3̶)̶
11
10
10
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
4
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Elephant - Loxodonta africana 🥈🥈
Yellow-Lipped Sea Krait - Laticauda colubrina
Red Fox - Vulpes vulpes 🥉
Platypus - Ornithorhynchus anatinus 🥉
Prehistoric Elephant - Palaeoloxodon namadicus 🥉🥉🥈
Sonoran Desert Sidewinder - Crotalus cerastes cercobombus
House Mouse - Mus musculus domesticus
Ice Worm - mesenchytraeus solifugus
Dog - Canis familiaris
Cat - Felis catus
Tiger - Panthera tigris
Dolphin - Tursiops truncatus
Penguin - Aptenodytes forsteri
Lion - Panthera leo 🥈
Axolotl - Ambystoma mexicanum
Sea Otter - Enhydra lutris
Honey Badger - Mellivora capensis 🥈
Polar Bear - Ursus maritimus 🥈
Wolverine - Gulo gulo
Cape Buffalo - Syncerus caffer caffer
Great White Shark - Carcharodon carcharias
Blue Whale - Balaenoptera musculus
Common Bed Bug - Cimex lectularius
Giant Nematode - Placentonema gigantissima
Pompeii Worm - Alvinella pompejana
Sperm Whale - Physeter macrocephalus
Penis snake - Atretochoana eiselti
Giant Dragonfly - Meganeuropsis permiana
Giant Pacific Octopus - Enteroctopus dofleini
Triceratops - Triceratops horridus
Kiwi - Apteryx australis
Brown Rat - Rattus norvegicus 🥉
Red Volcano Sponge - Acarnus Erithacus
Sulfur Cave Molly - Poecilia sulphuraria
Meerkat - Suricata suricatta 🥉
Housefly - Musca domestica 🥉
Feral pigeon - Columba livia urbana
Coyote - Canis latrans
Great black-backed gull - Larus marinus
Leopard seal - Hydrurga leptonyx
Western lowland gorilla - Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Eastern lowland gorilla - Gorilla beringei graueri
Brownthroated three-toed sloth - Bradypus variegatus 🥉
Bornean orangutan - Pongo pygmaeus
❌Defeated: Hippopotamus - Hippopotamus amphibius 🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Brown Rat]
❌Defeated: Giant Panda - Ailuropoda melanoleuca [beat by Polar Bear]
❌Defeated: Orca - Orcinus orca [beat by Housefly]
❌Defeated: Hotwheels sisyphus spider - Hotwheels sisyphus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Saltwater Crocodile - Crocodylus porosus 🥈🥈🥈🥈 [beat by Red Fox]
🚫Ineligible: Water bear - Milnesium tardigradum
❌Defeated: Ping-Pong Tree Sponge - Chondrocladia concrescens 🥉 [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
🚫Ineligible: human [I'm shortening this]
🚫Ineligible: Tardigrade (LFG)
🚫Ineligible: [This animal was edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Wolf - Canis lupus [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Cliff Swallow - Petrochelidon pyrrhonota [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Haast's Eagle - Hieraaetus moorei [beat by Prehistoric Elephant]
❌Defeated: Flightless Elephant Bird - Aepyornis maximus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Great evening bat - Ia io [beat by Lion]
❌Defeated: Funny valentine spider - Funny valentine [beat by Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian]
❌Defeated: Yi qi dinosaur - Yi qi [beat by Elephant]
❌Defeated: Aha ha wasp - Aha ha [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Colossal Whale - Perucetus colossus [beat by Meerkat]
❌Defeated: Cuban Cockroach - Panchlora nivea [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Panther Chameleon - Furcifer pardalis [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
❌Defeated: Giant Pterosaur - Quetzalcoatlus northropi [beat by Ping-Pong Tree Sponge]
❌Defeated: Lesser Flamingo - Phoeniconaias minor [beat by Honey Badger]
❌Defeated: Dermophis donaldtrumpi Caecilian - Dermophis donaldtrumpi 🥈[beat by Brownthroated three-toed sloth]
❌Defeated: New World Screwworm - Cochliomyia hominivorax [beat by Hippopotamus]
❌Defeated: Chinese giant salamander - Andrias davidianus [beat by Saltwater Crocodile]
🚫Ineligible: [edited in bad faith]
❌Defeated: Australopithecus - Australopithecus afarensis [beat by Platypus]
Other
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department
Flag desecration prohibition passed
Any vaccines banned for any group of people
J6er pardoned
Sports team invited to the white house
A member of Congress is censured or expelled
Mass Deportations
The democrats take control of the house of representatives
A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch
Trump is impeached
Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults
Coup attempt in the United States
Joe Exotic is released from prison
Drone strike in Mexico by US
350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates
China invades Taiwan
US punitive expedition in Mexico
Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary
Significant Rogue AI Incident
AGI achieved
100k humanoid robots manufactured
It ends with JD Vance becoming president
A human walks on the Moon
The Senate eliminates the filibuster
Largest solar flare since Carrington Event
Room temperature superconductor discovered
Nuclear weapon detonation
Elon Musk is arrested for treason
Supreme Court packing
Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)
US military intervention on Canadian territory
Donald Trump reelected President
22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms
Eagles three-peat
Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason
End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
89
80
72
71
43
41
40
38
37
37
31
31
26
26
25
17
16
13
12
12
10
9
5
5
5
2
2
2
0
OptionProbability
Angela Rayner
Nigel Farage
Kemi Badenoch
Wes Streeting
Ed Milliband
Andy Burnham
Shabana Mahmood
Yvette Cooper
Other
Lisa Nandy
David Lammy
Al Carns
James Cleverly
Robert Jenrick
Zack Polanski
Ed Davey
Jeremy Hunt
Rishi Sunak
Ben Wallace
Rosena Allin-Khan
Keir Starmer
Penny Mordaunt
Suella Braverman
Rebecca Long-Bailey
Someone Else
Emily Thornberry
Jess Phillips
Clive Lewis
Diane Abbott
John McDonnell
Dan Jarvis
Barry Gardiner
Ian Lavery
Michael Gove
Sajid Javid
Brandon Lewis
Grant Shapps
Tom Tugendhat
Boris Johnson
Theresa May
Andrea Leadsom
Stephen Crabb
Liam Fox
Nadhim Zahawi
Priti Patel
Angela Eagle
Hilary Benn
Jacob Rees-Mogg
Stephen Kinnock
Michelle Donelan
Johnny Mercer
Niko Omilana
Rachel Reeves
Jeremy Corbyn
16
16
9
8
8
7
7
6
5
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Last Unicorn by Peter Beagle
Alcatraz versus the Evil Librarians by Brandon Sanderson
The Amulet of Samarkand by Jonathan Stroud
The Mysterious Benedict Society by Trenton Stewart
The Rithmatist by Brandon Sanderson
Sabriel by Garth Nix
The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes by Arthur Conan Doyle
Mistborn by Brandon Sanderson
The Phantom Tollbooth by Norton Juster
Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card
Holes by Louis Sachar
Animorphs (series) by K. A. Applegate
The Witches by Roald Dahl
Small Gods by Terry Pratchett
Watership Down by Richard Adams
Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton
Have Spacesuit Will Travel by Robert Heinlein
Magician: Apprentice by Raymond E. Feist
Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir
Airborne by Kenneth Oppel
Call of the Wild by Jack London
The Dark Lord of Derkholm by Diana Wynn Jones
Something Wicked This Way Comes by Ray Bradbury
The Scarlet Pimpernel by Baroness Orczy
Eagle of the Ninth by Rosemary Sutcliffe
Mr Midshipman Hornblower by C S Forester
Mythology by Edith Hamilton
A Magical Girl Retires by Park Seolyeon
The Paper Menagerie and Other Stories by Ken Liu
Tales of the Unexpected by Roald Dahl
Eragon by Christopher Paolini
Howl’s Moving Castle by Diana Wynn Jones
Harry Potter and the methods of rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky
Andromeda Strain by Michael Chriton
On Basilisk Station (Honor Harrington #1) by David Weber
The Martian by Andy Weir
The Culture series by Iain M Banks
A Wizard of Earthsea by Ursula LeGuin
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
86
82
81
76
72
65
64
61
60
59
59
59
59
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
43
36
31
29
29
0
OptionProbability
Scores over 23.5 points in Week 1
Wins a preseason game
Saquon Barkley plays at least 12 games
Jalen Hurts scores more rushing TDs than Josh Allen
Jalen Hurts retires with more rushing yards than Josh Allen retires with
The team moves or is renamed before 2050
Drafts at least one QB in the NFL Draft
Nick Sirianni is fired mid-season
100
100
100
100
34
31
0
0
OptionProbability
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Los Angeles Chargers
San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals
Chicago Bears
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta Falcons
Washington Commanders
Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Carolina Panthers
Arizona Cardinals
New Orleans Saints
Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns
Las Vegas Raiders
New York Jets
73
72
70
66
66
65
64
64
63
63
62
59
58
58
53
50
50
47
44
41
40
36
36
35
33
33
28
25
19
18
15
12
OptionProbability
Seattle Seahawks (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2013-2014)
New England Patriots (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2018-2019)
Philadelphia Eagles (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2024-2025)
Detroit Lions (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2008-2009)
Kansas City Chiefs (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2023-2024)
Los Angeles Rams (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2021-2022)
New York Giants (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2011-2012)
Denver Broncos (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2015-2016)
Buffalo Bills (Last Extreme - Worst Team 1986-1987)
Baltimore Ravens (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2012-2013)
Green Bay Packers (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2010-2011)
Washington Commanders (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 1991-1992)
Dallas Cowboys (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 1995-1996)
Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2008-2009)
Chicago Bears (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2022-2023)
Minnesota Vikings (Last Extreme - N/A)
Houston Texans (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2013-2014)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2020-2021)
Los Angeles Chargers (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2003-2004)
San Francisco 49ers (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2004-2005)
Cincinnati Bengals (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2019-2020)
Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2021-2022)
Tennessee Titans (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2024-2025)
Miami Dolphins (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2007-2008)
Indianapolis Colts (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2011-2012)
Atlanta Falcons (Last Extreme - Worst Team 1987-1988)
Carolina Panthers (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2023-2024)
Arizona Cardinals (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2018-2019)
Las Vegas Raiders (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2025-2026)
New York Jets (Last Extreme - Worst Team 1995-1996)
New Orleans Saints (Last Extreme - Super Bowl Winner 2009-2010)
Cleveland Browns (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2017-2018)
Las Vegas Raiders (Last Extreme - Worst Team 2006-2007)
99
74
66
63
63
60
57
56
55
55
55
54
50
50
50
47
47
47
47
47
45
45
43
41
41
41
41
41
41
37
37
26
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1450
204
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1076
365
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1439
695
OptionProbability
Columbia
Eagle
Challenger
Space
Lunar
Moon
Armstrong
Discovery
America
Freedom
Enterprise
Endeavour
Voyager
Ranger
Fucking
50
48
33
31
29
27
25
20
20
15
14
14
14
14
0