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Prediction markets for Ear

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.33%chance

475814558799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

21691

19336

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

74%chance

18354039

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1996

1193

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

71.05%chance

17725328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12006

9046

Cat girl ears by end of 2029?

Dec 11, 2:21 AMNov 23, 12:35 PM

15%chance

8113890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

960

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.06%chance

2713596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12765

7830

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.8%chance

345924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2398

778

Before 2028, will over 50 Anthropic employees show up in office in cat ears?

Jun 18, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4%chance

201262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Pony ears for humans before 2035?

Dec 16, 1:40 AMDec 21, 12:38 PM

35.02%chance

19697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

883

Do Daniel, Yash, William, Ryan, Pascal and I all get into our earlies?

Nov 3, 11:47 PMJan 9, 11:59 PM

9547

OptionProbability

3 get in

4 get in

1 gets in

5 get in

2 get in

EVERYBODY GETS IN LFG

Nobody gets in

38

32

9

7

6

6

3

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

51

49

Will Bears Ears National Monument shrink again during Trump2 admin?

Jul 4, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.06%chance

5298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

341

29

Do you clean your ears with Q-Tips?

Oct 4, 9:35 PM

110

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