Ear News

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.33%chance

448912297736

OptionVotes

YES

25067

18304

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75%chance

18253982

OptionVotes

YES

2063

1170

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

5405

1263

Mana Shop - What digital goods will it contain in 2026?

Jan 15, 7:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4335981

OptionProbability

“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks

Profile hats

Profile pic borders

Profile Hovercard borders

Leverage (loan) rate increases

Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes

Coolfold's Jester hat

Top hat

Halo

Devil horns

Cat ears

Crystal ball icon on pfp

Wizard hat

Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)

Stonks arrow (over pfp)

Bull/Bear horns/ears

Monocle

Cosmetic badges

Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume

Additional site themes

Consumable market decorations

A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen

Profile page layout customization

trader bonus multiplier

Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)

Create a clan / community / group

MtG mana color symbols

Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment

Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)

Discord perks

Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)

Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete

Extra predictle sets

Mod queue priority status

100

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.9%chance

17525270

OptionVotes

YES

11950

9069

Cat girl ears by end of 2029?

Dec 11, 2:21 AMNov 23, 12:35 PM

18.26%chance

8013736

OptionVotes

YES

1143

1007

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.1%chance

2613586

OptionVotes

YES

12755

7836

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.8%chance

345924

OptionVotes

YES

2398

778

Before 2028, will over 50 Anthropic employees show up in office in cat ears?

Jun 18, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.94%chance

19934

OptionVotes

YES

207

Pony ears for humans before 2035?

Dec 16, 1:40 AMDec 21, 12:38 PM

37.31%chance

17639

OptionVotes

YES

1076

825

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

Will Bears Ears National Monument shrink again during Trump2 admin?

Jul 4, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.63%chance

448

OptionVotes

YES

105

Ear News

Prediction markets for Ear

Prediction markets for Ear

Prediction markets for Ear

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Mana Shop - What digital goods will it contain in 2026?

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Cat girl ears by end of 2029?

Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

Before 2028, will over 50 Anthropic employees show up in office in cat ears?

Pony ears for humans before 2035?

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Will Bears Ears National Monument shrink again during Trump2 admin?

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