Early Access News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

20049319

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

25099

3984

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.75%chance

171910

OptionVotes

YES

2681

374

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

26.65%chance

241455

OptionVotes

YES

1185

903

🪦What will happen before Noam Chomsky dies? [ADD RESPONSES]

Dec 29, 9:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

331451

OptionProbability

death stranding 2 releases

The official name of Elder Scrolls 6 is announced

bitcoin reaches 80k

end of Blue Monday 2025 (jan 15)

Slay the Spire 2 releases on steam early access

Next President is sworn in ( even if it's Biden )

Silksong

mr beast hits 250M subs on youtube

Alec Baldwin case ends

Trump running mate announced

2024 election is called by AP

The Federal Reserve decreases interest rates

Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Solar panels removed from the White House (again).

tortured poet's department releases

the end of manifest 2024

the start of manifest 2024

julian Assange extradited to usa

spiderman beyond the spiderverse releases

gta 6 releases

Joe Biden passes away or is murdered

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

he outlives inflation in the usa (trailing 12 month CPI increase less than 2% before he dies)

Lantern bioworks Lumina treatment given FDA approval for something

binance cease operating

Windows 12 released

trump found guilty of a crime

the ukraine russia war ends

human walks on the moon again

The last case of Guinea worm in humans

azerbaijian invades armenia

first female president

Ukraine joins NATO

destiny goes on joe rogan

100

Will any ballot boxes or mail in ballots be confiscated in the 2026 midterms?

Sep 26, 1:46 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

46.3%chance

13975

OptionVotes

YES

1077

929

When will Kerbal Space Program 2 be out of early access?

May 3, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6715

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2028

2026

2024

2025

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.48%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

1291

774

What will happen with Cursed Crew's development?

Jun 25, 4:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3353

OptionProbability

Game is cancelled 😢

Game leaves early access in 2026

Game gets 1,000 Steam reviews before 2027

Curse update released in 2025

Game leaves early access in 2025

Will a game like Vrchat be made with Godot and other game ideas by 2028

Jan 10, 8:29 PMJan 18, 5:59 AM

5304

OptionProbability

by 2028 hytale will launch in open Early access

A game like vrchat will be made with godot and will launch in open Early access by 2028

I make a game by 2028 in OEA

100

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

Aug 26, 9:25 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

46.66%chance

5177

OptionVotes

YES

1069

935

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

Early Access News

Prediction markets for Early Access

Prediction markets for Early Access

Prediction markets for Early Access

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

🪦What will happen before Noam Chomsky dies? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will any ballot boxes or mail in ballots be confiscated in the 2026 midterms?

When will Kerbal Space Program 2 be out of early access?

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

What will happen with Cursed Crew's development?

Will a game like Vrchat be made with Godot and other game ideas by 2028

Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of July 2027?

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

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