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Prediction markets for Earn

Which movies will earn more than $250M at the 2026 US Box Office?

Feb 18, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

284526

OptionProbability

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Project Hail Mary

Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)

Spiderman Brand New Day

Toy Story 5

The Mandalorian and Grogu

The Odyssey

Moana (live action)

Michael

Dune: Messiah

Avengers: Doomsday

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Supergirl

Disclosure Day

Jumanji Open World

The Devil Wears Prada 2

Hexed

Hoppers

100

100

93

92

92

86

81

80

79

73

72

64

50

40

36

25

22

1

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.23%chance

62299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4086

101

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?

Oct 22, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

92.73%chance

171890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

836

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?(inflation adjusted)

Oct 22, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.43%chance

15831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

864

When will a single-unit GPU with 80GB of VRAM cost less to buy than the average American's weekly earnings?

Apr 23, 2:44 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

14613

OptionProbability

2036-2040

2030

2031-2035

2028

2029

2027

2041 or later/Never

2026

2025

2024

72

71

71

69

68

66

54

34

24

10

Before 2040, will an entirely AI-generated film earn a 5/10 or better on IMDB?

Sep 21, 1:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.42%chance

11590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

824

Will the EARN IT act be passed in the US by 2030?

Apr 22, 11:25 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

24.57%chance

12241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

904

Through September 2026, will Spider-Man 4 out-earn the combined domestic box office of Toy Story 5 and Scream 7?

Jan 12, 12:57 AMOct 2, 11:59 PM

72%chance

7215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

62

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2030

Mar 14, 4:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.74%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

99

Will Rivian R2 earn IIHS Top Safety Pick+?

Apr 22, 10:03 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

47.61%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

953

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2035

Mar 14, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.77%chance

346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

66

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