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Prediction markets for Earn

Will an AI autonomously earn more than $10,000 not through financial trading, starting with no more than $100 by 2026?

Jun 15, 8:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.4%chance

516401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2038

491

When will I have earned >=$100 USD via prize points on Manifold? (see desc)

May 22, 7:41 PMDec 30, 7:59 AM

113798

OptionProbability

June 2025

December 2025

December 2024

June 2024

7

7

5

0

Will Conjecture Earn >$2M revenue?

Dec 18, 2:07 PMNov 30, 12:00 PM

31.72%chance

193088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3388

1694

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.23%chance

62299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4086

101

Will the UK Government offer >1000£ in tax incentives to people earning more than the UK median income to get health insurance before 2025?

Jan 2, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.49%chance

121938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2042

865

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?

Oct 22, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.32%chance

171389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1697

881

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?(inflation adjusted)

Oct 22, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

79.92%chance

14430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

945

Will GPT-5 earn Bronze on IMO 2025?

Jul 24, 1:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.33%chance

12388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

53

Will the EARN IT act be passed in the US by 2030?

Apr 22, 11:25 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

24.57%chance

12241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

904

Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:29 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

70.55%chance

696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

100

Will women aged 16 to 24 earn at least 10% more than men in the same age bracket by 2027-8?

Mar 9, 8:18 PMMar 16, 10:59 PM

47.71%chance

757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

96

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