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Prediction markets for Earn

Will an AI autonomously earn more than $10,000 not through financial trading, starting with no more than $100 by 2026?

Jun 15, 8:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.87%chance

526967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2864

349

Will the UK Government offer >1000£ in tax incentives to people earning more than the UK median income to get health insurance before 2025?

Jan 2, 10:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.37%chance

134938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5042

746

When will I have earned >=$100 USD via prize points on Manifold? (see desc)

May 22, 7:41 PMDec 30, 7:59 AM

124148

OptionProbability

December 2025

June 2025

December 2024

June 2024

6

5

4

0

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.23%chance

62299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4086

101

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?

Oct 22, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

92.73%chance

171890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

836

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 earn more money in 24 hours than GTA 5?(inflation adjusted)

Oct 22, 1:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.43%chance

15831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

864

Before 2040, will an entirely AI-generated film earn a 5/10 or better on IMDB?

Sep 21, 1:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.42%chance

11590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

824

Will the EARN IT act be passed in the US by 2030?

Apr 22, 11:25 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

24.57%chance

12241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

904

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2030

Mar 14, 4:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.74%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

99

Will the relative earnings of college graduates decrease by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:29 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

70.55%chance

696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

100

Will the gender pay gap in weekly real earnings close to within 5% before 2035

Mar 14, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.77%chance

346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

66

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