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Prediction markets for Earth Fund

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

77.79%chance

6811466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1873

535

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

769

How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?

Jun 1, 3:04 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

191491

OptionProbability

0-40

40-80

80-120

120-160

160-200

280-320

320-360

360-400

400-440

440-480

480-520

520-560

560-600

600-640

640-680

680-720

720-760

760-800

800-840

840-880

880-920

920-960

200-240

240-280

960-1000

1000-1040

1040-1080

1080-1120

1120-1160

1160-1200

1200-1240

1240-1280

1280-1320

1320-1360

1360-1400

1400-1440

1440-1480

1480-1520

1520-1560

1560-1600

1600-1640

1640-1680

1680-1720

1720-1760

1760-1800

1800-1840

1840-1880

1880-1920

1920-1960

1960-2000

6

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

When will Starship land on Mars?

Jul 21, 12:54 AMJan 21, 12:44 AM

171401

OptionProbability

Later than 2032

2031

Never

2029

2032

2028

2030

2026

2027

Other

48

18

16

9

3

2

2

1

1

1

Will people fly on moon before 2040?

Jan 5, 3:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

141244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?

Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM

22.67%chance

41063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

If I find a violation of universal free fall, will I come up with a promising tentative explanation?

Jan 4, 3:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.16%chance

16283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

963

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