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Prediction markets for Earth Fund

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.31%chance

11853527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

650

Will there be MAJOR, HISTORIC-LEVEL protests against Trump during his second term?

Feb 21, 9:33 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

73.11%chance

618318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1649

606

Will there be a breakthrough communicating with animals and AI in 2025

Jan 15, 3:29 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

13.06%chance

305419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2580

388

How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?

Jun 1, 3:04 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

191491

OptionProbability

0-40

40-80

80-120

120-160

160-200

280-320

320-360

360-400

400-440

440-480

480-520

520-560

560-600

600-640

640-680

680-720

720-760

760-800

800-840

840-880

880-920

920-960

200-240

240-280

960-1000

1000-1040

1040-1080

1080-1120

1120-1160

1160-1200

1200-1240

1240-1280

1280-1320

1320-1360

1360-1400

1400-1440

1440-1480

1480-1520

1520-1560

1560-1600

1600-1640

1640-1680

1680-1720

1720-1760

1760-1800

1800-1840

1840-1880

1880-1920

1920-1960

1960-2000

6

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

When will Starship land on Mars?

Jul 21, 12:54 AMJan 21, 12:44 AM

131108

OptionProbability

2029

Never

2031

Later than 2032

2027

2030

2032

2028

2026

Other

26

19

18

16

8

4

4

3

1

1

Will the Tadpole Experiment experiment be independently replicated in the next 10 years?

Jul 4, 10:42 PMJul 4, 10:40 PM

22.67%chance

41063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

541

If I find a violation of universal free fall, will I come up with a promising tentative explanation?

Jan 4, 3:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.16%chance

16283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

963

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