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Prediction markets for Earth orbit

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

73.6%chance

18053773

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1970

1202

Will India launch a human into Earth orbit before the end of 2025?

Aug 24, 6:55 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

1%chance

2923036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13594

427

Will Starship land on legs on Earth after returning from orbit?

Mar 19, 8:59 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

1%chance

144918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3085

79

There is between the Earth and Mars a china teapot revolving in an elliptical orbit

Apr 5, 7:45 PMApr 5, 8:59 PM

52153

OptionProbability

NO

YES

147

104

Will India launch a human into Earth orbit before the end of 2026?

Aug 24, 6:55 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

1.14%chance

101982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

34

Amazon lets me rent a server located in earth orbit by mid 2029

May 12, 7:03 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

9.95%chance

351230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1793

847

Will MrBeast go to Earth orbit before 2028?

Mar 19, 8:14 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50.11%chance

32881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

822

Will I ever orbit the Earth?

Mar 20, 3:00 AMMar 27, 5:59 AM

31.19%chance

23528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

879

Will India launch a human into Earth orbit before the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 6:56 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

72.43%chance

8510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

141

Will there be a new record for people orbiting earth by the end of 2025?

Sep 16, 4:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.16%chance

7245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will Kanye West orbit the Earth before the end of 2031?

May 2, 6:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.6%chance

9125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

Payload cost per kg to Low Earth Orbit in 2040

May 16, 3:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.66%chance

372

OptionProbability

YES

NO

359

166

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