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Top stories

Sean Duffy: NASA Plans Moon Base Under Trump Administration, Faces Astrophysics Turnover and Shifts From Earth Science

Sean Duffy: NASA Plans Moon Base Under Trump Administration, Faces Astrophysics Turnover and Shifts From Earth Science

Authors

8

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Earth science

Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Apr 2, 4:16 AMMar 2, 11:59 PM

202164

OptionProbability

International Mathematical Olympiad

International Olympiad in Informatics

International Astronomy Olympiad

International Biology Olympiad

International Olympiad on Astronomy & Astrophysics

International Physics Olympiad

International Earth Science Olympiad

International Chemistry Olympiad

100

100

21

20

20

19

19

18

Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.89%chance

211909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

221

Will the "Destruction of a Nuclear Bomb Using Ultra-High Energy Neutrino Beam" occur before 2034?

Feb 6, 12:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.84%chance

191016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

957

Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030?

Dec 28, 9:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.62%chance

21945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

933

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

935

Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?

May 7, 4:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.39%chance

683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

At what temperature anomaly will global warming peak before the Earth starts cooling again?

Oct 15, 7:38 AMOct 22, 9:59 PM

361

OptionProbability

2.2 degrees Celsius

1.9 degrees Celsius

2.0 degrees Celsius

2.1 degrees Celsius

3.0 degrees Celsius

1.4 degrees Celsius

1.5 degrees Celsius

1.6 degrees Celsius

1.7 degrees Celsius

1.8 degrees Celsius

2.3 degrees Celsius

2.4 degrees Celsius

2.5 degrees Celsius

2.6 degrees Celsius

2.9 degrees Celsius

3.1 degrees Celsius

3.2 degrees Celsius

3.3 degrees Celsius

3.4 degrees Celsius

3.5 degrees Celsius

3.6 degrees Celsius

3.7 degrees Celsius

3.8 degrees Celsius

3.9 degrees Celsius

4.0 degrees Celsius

More than 4 degrees Celsius

Other

8

5

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Sep 23, 12:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.83%chance

560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

107

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