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Prediction markets for Earthquake

Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?

Jun 6, 12:06 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.84%chance

349450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

939

Will powerful (magnitude 8.0 or more) earthquake hit city of Almaty (this is a city in Kazakhstan) before end of 2025?

Mar 25, 4:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.33%chance

258341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7270

518

Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2025?

Jan 6, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

356749

OptionProbability

Russia

Other

ignore

Japan

New Zealand

Ethiopia

Vanuatu

Philippines

Tonga

North Macedonia

Morocco

Turkiye

Afghanistan

Indonesia

China

Mexico

Chile

Peru

Qatar

Sweden

United States

Nepal

Haiti

Taiwan

Greece

Myanmar

Canada

Bolivia

Israel

Egypt

Gibraltar

Colombia

Guatemala

Croatia

Thailand

Laos

Micronesia

Italy

Iran

96

50

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Iran earthquake a nuclear test?

Jun 21, 7:35 AMSep 30, 7:30 AM

4.07%chance

234468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4854

206

Magnitude 6.0+ earthquake in Southern California before August 5, 2025

May 7, 9:10 PMAug 5, 12:00 AM

1%chance

151364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will there be an earthquake causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027?

Oct 22, 9:35 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

20.17%chance

201159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1608

699

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

Jan 9, 10:59 AMJan 10, 4:59 AM

79.46%chance

17946

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1783

671

Will we be able to predict earthquakes by 2035?

Oct 4, 5:29 AMJan 5, 7:59 AM

31.99%chance

15619

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

965

What will be the strongest earthquake epicenter measured in the Los Angeles metro area before 2026?

Oct 6, 3:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9313

OptionProbability

5.0-5.9 (Moderate)

4.0-4.9 (Light)

6.0-6.9 (Strong)

7.0-7.9 (Major)

8.0 and above (Great)

Below 4.0 (Minor)

41

23

23

7

6

1

Will the Cascadia subduction zone experience a Megathrust earthquake before 2050?

Sep 6, 6:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.84%chance

12301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

157

Will there be an earthquake of magnitude >6.0 in the New Madrid Seismic Zone by the end of 2026?

Mar 1, 4:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

13.61%chance

3165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

57

Will a large earthquake rock a major city that isn't in a tectonically active area by end 2029?

Oct 13, 12:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.34%chance

10115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

131

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