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Prediction markets for Easter

For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

Dec 17, 12:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3324524

OptionProbability

04/01 April Fools Day

12/25 Christmas

10/31 Halloween

Thanksgiving

11/03 U.S. Election Day

Fall equinox (or fall in general)

Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

12/31 New Year's Eve

06/** Pride Month

07/04 U.S. Independence Day

Labor Day

11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day

Summer Solstice (or summer in general)

Spring equinox (or spring in general)

Mother's Day

05/27 Memorial Day

Father's Day

Juneteenth

Any Manifest

03/08 International Women's Day

The Oscars

03/14 Pi Day

Saint Patrick's Day

Easter

04/22 Earth Day

05/04 Star Wars Day

05/05 Cinco de Mayo

Cortina Winter Olympics

100

86

78

63

55

41

41

32

20

20

10

10

9

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

Aug 15, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.48%chance

122330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

411

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

28.83%chance

5949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

636

Will microplastics become an easter egg/feature in any video game (eg a sims clone) by EOY2029?

Sep 21, 5:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

1636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the eastern face of K2 be climbed by 2028?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.64%chance

6578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

744

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Next Red List Assessment?

Dec 5, 2:41 PMAug 31, 9:59 PM

4562

OptionProbability

Critically Endangered

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Other

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

Not Evaluated

Endangered

Extinct in the Wild

New Conservation Status

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Data Deficient

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Vulnerable

Extinct

49

10

10

9

5

4

4

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

Will the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 21, 11:25 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.08%chance

12422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

807

238

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Will there be at least 100MW of operational geothermal capacity in the eastern united states by 2034?

Nov 1, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.18%chance

5310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

763

Will the Philadelphia 76ers play in an eastern conference finals by the end of the 2027 NBA season?

Nov 14, 3:29 AMNov 21, 7:59 AM

9.5%chance

11281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

289

16

Easter Bunny stock

Apr 10, 5:36 AMApr 11, 3:59 AM

15169

OptionProbability

NO

YES

288

246

NBA Eastern Conference stock

May 2, 2:58 AMMay 2, 3:59 AM

10152

OptionProbability

NO

YES

155

145

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