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Prediction markets for Easter

For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

Dec 17, 12:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3426077

OptionProbability

04/01 April Fools Day

12/25 Christmas

10/31 Halloween

11/03 U.S. Election Day

Thanksgiving

Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

12/31 New Year's Eve

Fall equinox (or fall in general)

Labor Day

11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day

Summer Solstice (or summer in general)

Any Manifest

03/08 International Women's Day

The Oscars

03/14 Pi Day

Saint Patrick's Day

Spring equinox (or spring in general)

Easter

04/22 Earth Day

05/04 Star Wars Day

05/05 Cinco de Mayo

Mother's Day

05/27 Memorial Day

06/** Pride Month

Father's Day

Juneteenth

07/04 U.S. Independence Day

Cortina Winter Olympics

100

86

78

65

60

41

32

30

10

10

9

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

Aug 15, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

10.85%chance

122830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2866

349

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

28.83%chance

5949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

636

Will microplastics become an easter egg/feature in any video game (eg a sims clone) by EOY2029?

Sep 21, 5:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

1636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the eastern face of K2 be climbed by 2028?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.64%chance

6578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

744

Will the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 21, 11:25 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.08%chance

12422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

807

238

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Will there be at least 100MW of operational geothermal capacity in the eastern united states by 2034?

Nov 1, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.18%chance

5310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

763

Easter Bunny stock

Apr 10, 5:36 AMApr 11, 3:59 AM

15169

OptionProbability

NO

YES

288

246

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2100?

Dec 6, 11:13 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2103

OptionProbability

Critically Endangered

Extinct in the Wild

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Other

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

Endangered

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Extinct

New Conservation Status

Not Evaluated

Vulnerable

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Data Deficient

33

9

9

9

8

7

6

5

5

4

2

1

1

1

When will the FDA release the next set of authorizations for marketing of alternative nicotine products? (Eastern Time)

Jul 7, 10:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

675

OptionProbability

December 2026

Other

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

36

21

9

9

9

9

9

Will the population of Eastern and South-Eastern Asia exceed 2.45 billion this century?

Nov 2, 1:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.75%chance

25

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

65

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