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Prediction markets for Easter

Taylor Swift residency at Las Vegas Sphere announced before Easter 2026?

Aug 24, 1:45 PMApr 4, 11:59 PM

1.17%chance

711276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9181

109

For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

Dec 17, 12:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2610562

OptionProbability

12/25 Christmas

10/31 Halloween

Thanksgiving

Easter

11/03 U.S. Election Day

06/** Pride Month

Fall equinox (or fall in general)

Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

04/01 April Fools Day

12/31 New Year's Eve

Any Manifest

05/27 Memorial Day

07/04 U.S. Independence Day

05/04 Star Wars Day

Juneteenth

Spring equinox (or spring in general)

04/22 Earth Day

Mother's Day

Father's Day

Labor Day

11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day

05/05 Cinco de Mayo

Summer Solstice (or summer in general)

03/08 International Women's Day

The Oscars

03/14 Pi Day

Saint Patrick's Day

Cortina Winter Olympics

84

83

66

50

50

46

37

37

34

32

30

20

20

18

15

12

10

10

10

10

10

9

9

1

1

1

1

1

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

Aug 15, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.48%chance

122330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

411

Will @Tumbles place a bet before Easter 2026? [read description]

May 4, 5:01 PMApr 5, 4:59 AM

7.02%chance

182105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

364

27

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

28.82%chance

5946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1572

636

Will microplastics become an easter egg/feature in any video game (eg a sims clone) by EOY2029?

Sep 21, 5:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

1636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?

Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.83%chance

19599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

155

Will the eastern face of K2 be climbed by 2028?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.64%chance

6578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1344

744

Will the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 21, 11:25 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.08%chance

12422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

807

238

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Will there be at least 100MW of operational geothermal capacity in the eastern united states by 2034?

Nov 1, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.18%chance

5310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

763

Easter Bunny stock

Apr 10, 5:36 AMApr 11, 3:59 AM

15169

OptionProbability

NO

YES

288

246

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