Easter News

For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

Dec 17, 12:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3219794

OptionProbability

04/01 April Fools Day

12/25 Christmas

10/31 Halloween

Thanksgiving

11/03 U.S. Election Day

06/** Pride Month

Fall equinox (or fall in general)

Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

Any Manifest

12/31 New Year's Eve

05/27 Memorial Day

07/04 U.S. Independence Day

Juneteenth

Spring equinox (or spring in general)

Mother's Day

Father's Day

Labor Day

11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day

Summer Solstice (or summer in general)

04/22 Earth Day

05/04 Star Wars Day

05/05 Cinco de Mayo

03/08 International Women's Day

The Oscars

03/14 Pi Day

Saint Patrick's Day

Easter

Cortina Winter Olympics

100

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

Aug 15, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.48%chance

122330

OptionVotes

YES

2430

411

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

28.83%chance

5949

OptionVotes

YES

1571

636

Will microplastics become an easter egg/feature in any video game (eg a sims clone) by EOY2029?

Sep 21, 5:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

1636

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?

Feb 24, 9:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.83%chance

19599

OptionVotes

YES

274

155

Will the eastern face of K2 be climbed by 2028?

Jan 8, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.64%chance

6578

OptionVotes

YES

1344

744

Will the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 21, 11:25 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.08%chance

12422

OptionVotes

YES

807

238

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

1044

907

Will there be at least 100MW of operational geothermal capacity in the eastern united states by 2034?

Nov 1, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.18%chance

5310

OptionVotes

YES

1310

763

Easter Bunny stock

Apr 10, 5:36 AMApr 11, 3:59 AM

15169

OptionProbability

YES

288

246

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2050?

Dec 6, 11:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3140

OptionProbability

Endangered

Critically Endangered

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Other

New Conservation Status

Not Evaluated

Extinct in the Wild

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Vulnerable

Extinct

Data Deficient

Will a major Middle Eastern nation successfully detonate a nuclear device before the end of 2027?

Apr 13, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

The 4-stage escalation trap and which stage we're at now

Iran's nuclear strategy — how many weapons, test detonation logic, timeline

Global power shifts — China, Russia, Iran as a combined bloc vs. the US

Oil control — Iran + Russia potentially controlling 30% of world oil supply

Trump's options — ground troops, oil fields, the deal with Israel containment

NATO's future — whether Article 5 still has any real meaning

Easter News

Prediction markets for Easter

Prediction markets for Easter

Prediction markets for Easter

For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2026?

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

Will microplastics become an easter egg/feature in any video game (eg a sims clone) by EOY2029?

Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?

Will the eastern face of K2 be climbed by 2028?

Will the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) become extinct in the current century?

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Will there be at least 100MW of operational geothermal capacity in the eastern united states by 2034?

Easter Bunny stock

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2050?

Will a major Middle Eastern nation successfully detonate a nuclear device before the end of 2027?

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