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Prediction markets for Eastern European

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.75%chance

8214012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2506

400

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

May 16, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

164352

OptionProbability

December 31

October 31

May 31

June 30

9

5

0

0

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

28.83%chance

5949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

636

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12884

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Estonia

Lithuania

Other

Latvia

Finland

Alaska

70

11

5

5

4

3

3

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

76.29%chance

10325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

83

What songs will appear on the radio in Grand Theft Auto VI at release?

Dec 7, 7:10 AMNov 20, 7:59 AM

5263

OptionProbability

Love Is A Long Road - Tom Petty

Hot Together - The Pointer Sisters

Everybody Have Fun Tonight - Wang Chung

Child Support - Zenglen

Turn Red - M Dot R

Gospel - Dr. Dre

Talkin' to Myself Again - Tammy Wynette

Take the Money and Run - Steve Miller Band

I Love Rock 'n' Roll - Joan Jett & the Blackhearts

Love the Way You Lie - Eminem

93

93

86

86

59

59

59

50

41

35

Which musicians/ensembles will be featured in the Grand Theft Auto VI soundtrack at release?

Dec 7, 8:19 AMNov 20, 7:59 AM

8183

OptionProbability

Tom Petty

Denzel Curry

Bad Bunny

Snoop Dogg

Hall & Oates

The Weeknd

Rick Ross

The Pointer Sisters

Michael Jackson

Rihanna

Woody Jackson

Jan Hammer

T-Pain

Eminem

Dr. Dre

Wang Chung

Zenglen

Tammy Wynette

Joan Jett

KNOWER

Steve Miller Band

81

75

70

70

66

66

66

66

62

62

59

59

59

59

59

59

59

59

59

50

50

Which Regional Group will the next UN Secretary-General come from?

Apr 4, 3:36 AMJan 2, 3:59 PM

5180

OptionProbability

Latin American and Carribbean

African

Western European and Others

Eastern European

Asian and the Pacific

88

4

3

3

3

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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