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Prediction markets for Economics Day

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

Jul 17, 4:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.17%chance

365571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2223

450

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.78%chance

235162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.93%chance

171609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

980

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.78%chance

131089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

977

Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026

Oct 24, 2:46 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

50.06%chance

81076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

999

Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average cross 50,000 by March 31, 2026, the end of the fiscal quarter.

Jan 7, 2:02 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

73.95%chance

6697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

593

Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by end of year 2026

Jan 11, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

23575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will OpenAI go public in 2026?

Jan 13, 7:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.43%chance

12442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

May 14, 2:40 AMMar 2, 3:34 AM

42.65%chance

13339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

90

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.65%chance

4119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

978

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