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Prediction markets for Economics Day

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

Jul 17, 4:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.17%chance

365571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2223

450

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.73%chance

225161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

747

When will Mark Carney release the Canadian Federal Budget?

May 29, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:53 AM

61836

OptionProbability

November

June

July

August

September

October

December

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be a general strike in the United States before Trump's second term ends?

Feb 27, 10:59 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

84%chance

191273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

456

160

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Oct 12, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16916

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Never

44

15

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026

Oct 24, 2:46 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

55.17%chance

7876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

901

Which prongs of the "3-3-3" economic plan will the Trump administration achieve by the end of Q1, 2028?

Dec 16, 7:20 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

17386

OptionProbability

Increase domestic energy production by 3 million barrel of oil equivalents per day

Reduce budget deficit to 3% of GDP

Real GDP growth of 3% per annum

39

12

12

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?

Mar 24, 3:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.14%chance

14293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

174

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Dec 2025 to exceed 600

Jun 30, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.01%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Citigroup stock over $100 at EOY2025?

Aug 1, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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