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Prediction markets for Economics Day

Hipkins+Luxon+Peters all leaders on day of next election?

Dec 23, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.71%chance

1110335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3368

94

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

Jul 17, 4:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.17%chance

365571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2223

450

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.4%chance

222282

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1377

729

Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026

Oct 24, 2:46 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

30.91%chance

131886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

669

Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?

Jan 4, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.78%chance

131089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

977

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

45.46%chance

2751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10751

9328

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

784

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2027 day-ahead annual average exceed US$55/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

43.91%chance

2501

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10501

9321

Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index ≥ 600 in 2026

Mar 11, 7:31 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

42.91%chance

7392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

867

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Dec 2, 7:02 PMDec 30, 6:53 PM

59.06%chance

4301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will MISO Indiana Hub 2028 day-ahead annual average exceed US$60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

36.34%chance

3206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10206

9628

Will OMIE Spain 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed €60/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10001

9999

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