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Prediction markets for Economics Day

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision in September

Aug 1, 4:13 PMSep 17, 5:59 PM

226509

OptionProbability

25 bps decrease

No change

50+ bps decrease

Increase

85

12

3

1

Will social conservatism in the US significantly affect the lives of people in blue states before 2029

Jul 17, 4:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

84.62%chance

365448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2345

426

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.73%chance

225161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

747

Will there be a general strike in the United States before Trump's second term ends?

Feb 27, 10:59 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

83.77%chance

191217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

452

161

S&P500 closes below 1 point at any point in 2025?

Jun 7, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

5986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

How many days will the Panama Canal remain closed due to military conflict during Trump's presidency?

Jan 31, 7:17 PMFeb 1, 3:59 AM

11580

OptionProbability

0

1+

7+

30+

60+

180+

360+

90

17

11

11

11

10

8

Which prongs of the "3-3-3" economic plan will the Trump administration achieve by the end of Q1, 2028?

Dec 16, 7:20 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

16366

OptionProbability

Increase domestic energy production by 3 million barrel of oil equivalents per day

Reduce budget deficit to 3% of GDP

Real GDP growth of 3% per annum

53

12

12

When will Mark Carney release the Canadian Federal Budget?

May 29, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:53 AM

4340

Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?

Mar 24, 3:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.14%chance

14293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

174

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Dec 2025 to exceed 600

Jun 30, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.1%chance

3131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Citigroup stock over $100 at EOY2025?

Aug 1, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

When will the Rio Grande Plan be completed?

Apr 24, 4:26 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

120

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