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Prediction markets for Edge AI

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

496718482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14169

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.82%chance

99161555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111105

17339

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8921183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13505

8680

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

10.33%chance

11920234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2947

339

Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?

Feb 16, 4:26 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

4.19%chance

9514585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4785

209

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1511432

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

63

54

42

28

9

5

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.9%chance

577129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3452

2465

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.9%chance

194054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4453

1165

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

212211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

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