Edge AI News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

16300

14168

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

81796

26531

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

Which AI future will we get?

May 1, 7:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11822099

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.47%chance

9021683

OptionVotes

YES

14005

8548

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Aug 26, 7:20 PMAug 24, 6:59 AM

6.99%chance

12120999

OptionVotes

YES

3646

274

Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?

Feb 16, 4:26 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

7.3%chance

10218953

OptionVotes

YES

3565

281

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

1714357

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

7210411

OptionVotes

YES

4186

2254

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.72%chance

205734

OptionVotes

YES

4744

1120

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

1675

819

Edge AI News

Prediction markets for Edge AI

Prediction markets for Edge AI

Prediction markets for Edge AI

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Which AI future will we get?

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Will space be the cheapest place to put AI by end of Feb 2029?

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

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