Edge AI News

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.93%chance

506724947

OptionVotes

YES

16828

12117

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.4%chance

185309762

OptionVotes

YES

112537

28904

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.67%chance

8149972

OptionVotes

YES

28379

3002

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Dec 26, 9:30 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

2331706

OptionProbability

January 2029 or earlier

June 2028 or earlier

January 2028 or earlier

June 2027 or earlier

January 2027 or earlier

June 2026 or earlier

Which AI future will we get?

May 1, 7:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12122191

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

14513

8421

Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children?

Jul 31, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4317136

OptionVotes

YES

3694

560

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

8213590

OptionVotes

YES

5293

2022

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

Apr 25, 5:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.69%chance

216349

OptionVotes

YES

5359

1039

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131706

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Will the Democratic Nominee in 2028 say “genocide”?

Jun 28, 2:15 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

36.64%chance

131481

OptionVotes

YES

3856

2365

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

1675

819

Edge AI News

Prediction markets for Edge AI

Prediction markets for Edge AI

Prediction markets for Edge AI

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps?

Which AI future will we get?

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children?

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Will AGI arrive before Frozen 3?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Will the Democratic Nominee in 2028 say “genocide”?

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

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