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Top stories

Russian Groups RomCom, Paper Werewolf Exploit WinRAR Zero-Day; Microsoft Patches 111 Flaws Including Kerberos Zero-Day and 13 Critical RCEs

Russian Groups RomCom, Paper Werewolf Exploit WinRAR Zero-Day; Microsoft Patches 111 Flaws Including Kerberos Zero-Day and 13 Critical RCEs

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19

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Edge

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Do I actually have an edge here? (permanent stock)

Dec 29, 7:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.05%chance

6406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

868

Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.2%chance

10272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

168

Will 5G edge computing gain widespread adoption in consumer services before 2030?

Sep 1, 12:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.12%chance

3270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

35

Will Edge remain the 3rd most popular browser by the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.69%chance

9169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

113

Will Edge remain the 3rd most popular browser by the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 1:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.32%chance

1179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

166

Will Edge Esmeralda have greater attendance YoY every year until 2030?

Oct 19, 4:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.93%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

72

Will the US require hardware security features on cutting-edge chips by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.26%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

63

Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?

Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

73

Will any Edge Esmeralda fellow become Thiel Fellow by EOY2028?

Jun 18, 9:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.08%chance

26

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will Nick Ford, gwern, or any Edge Esmeralda fellow (eg Janet Shin) attend Jose Luis Ricon's wedding?

Jun 16, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

How many parameters will the cutting edge foundation model have in 2030?

Oct 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90

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