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Prediction markets for Edit

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.82%chance

2913425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13323

3371

Will there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication

Jun 1, 2:05 PMNov 18, 10:59 PM

4.79%chance

75154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4460

224

By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?

Dec 23, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.69%chance

473174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

770

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

Nov 3, 2:03 PMJan 1, 8:43 AM

4.87%chance

141748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

478

Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?

Jan 26, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.93%chance

291208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

900

Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?

Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.19%chance

131082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

888

Will GiveWell research gene-editing mosquitoes to eradicate malaria?

Dec 29, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.65%chance

24774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

926

Will we be able to edit our own genomes by 2050?

Mar 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

63.62%chance

23756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

947

PMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition)

Sep 18, 4:59 AMJan 2, 3:58 AM

12.73%chance

2661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

898

President Stocks - J Edition

Nov 7, 1:34 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

8347

OptionProbability

Joe Biden

John F. Kennedy

John Adams

John Tyler

Jimmy Carter

James Madison

James Monroe

James A. Garfield

John Quincy Adams

James K. Polk

James Buchanan

22

18

14

10

7

6

6

5

4

4

4

Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?

Jun 30, 1:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.69%chance

10109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

989

When will I through up? (2026 edition)

Dec 31, 6:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

July

October

December

September

November

January

February

March

April

May

June

August

10

10

10

9

9

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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