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Prediction markets for Edit

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.03%chance

235958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5866

4797

By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?

Dec 23, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.65%chance

463124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

720

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

Nov 3, 2:03 PMJan 1, 8:43 AM

4.89%chance

131740

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2490

479

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2040?

Jan 3, 9:15 AMDec 28, 9:59 PM

71.9%chance

341556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

624

130

Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?

Jan 26, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.02%chance

271175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

899

Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?

Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.19%chance

131082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

888

Will GiveWell research gene-editing mosquitoes to eradicate malaria?

Dec 29, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.65%chance

24774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

926

Will we be able to edit our own genomes by 2050?

Mar 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

63.62%chance

23756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

947

Should we be allowed to edit our own genomes? (permanent)

Mar 27, 12:09 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

15355

OptionProbability

NO

YES

406

205

Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally?

May 12, 2:03 AMJan 2, 2:55 AM

5223

OptionProbability

China

Singapore

South Korea

Israel

USA

Other country, not in a semi-autonomous zone

Taiwan

Canada

Japan

Semi-autonomous charter city or network state (like Prospera)

United Kingdom

71

50

50

50

34

30

24

22

20

20

13

Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?

Jun 30, 1:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.69%chance

10109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

989

Will there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication

Jun 1, 2:05 PMNov 18, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

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