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Prediction markets for Edits

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Apr 6, 9:52 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

7.02%chance

9812873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3833

70

By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?

Dec 23, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.65%chance

463124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

720

Will I need to type and move the mouse while editing code at the end of 2025?

Sep 16, 5:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

87.08%chance

302910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2596

385

Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?

Jan 26, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79.02%chance

271175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

899

Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?

Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.14%chance

121022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

921

Will Infinite Jest get a 30th anniversary edition before 2027?

Jan 27, 11:33 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

99%chance

11900

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

Will GiveWell research gene-editing mosquitoes to eradicate malaria?

Dec 29, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.65%chance

24774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

926

Will we be able to edit our own genomes by 2050?

Mar 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

63.62%chance

23756

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

947

A single neural network will win multiple top short story awards (for many stories) before 2026. No editing.

May 19, 4:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.1%chance

17641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

885

Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?

Jun 30, 1:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.69%chance

10109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

989

Will there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication

Jun 1, 2:05 PMNov 18, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Edit the description of this market

Mar 1, 2:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

47.41%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

164

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