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Prediction markets for Education Report

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Global total fertility rate below 2.1 in what decade?

Jun 1, 11:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10925

OptionProbability

2080 or later

Before 2070

Before 2080

Before 2030

Before 2050

Before 2060

Before 2040

96

95

95

94

94

94

91

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Will a sub-20 ranked college or university break the top 5 by 2050?

Dec 12, 5:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

61.32%chance

12267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

817

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the US undergo Stagflation before the 2026 midterms?

May 4, 11:12 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

7146

OptionProbability

Yes on Stagflation (high inflation & recession)

No abnormalities in inflation & GDP

Recession but no inflation abnormality

Inflation but no GDP abnormality

Deflation/low inflation and recession

High inflation and GDP growth

High GDP but no inflation abnormality

Deflation/low inflation but no GDP abnormality

Deflation/low inflation & high GDP growth

25

20

19

13

6

5

5

4

3

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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