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Prediction markets for Education Report

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Global total fertility rate below 2.1 in what decade?

Jun 1, 11:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

101034

OptionProbability

2080 or later

Before 2070

Before 2080

Before 2060

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

96

95

95

94

82

66

12

Will at least 25% of US retail investors report using an AI agent for an investment-related task by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.09%chance

4790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

591

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.73%chance

12716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

38

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.9%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

848

Who will win the November 2026 election for the Texas State Senate District 9 seat?

Mar 29, 9:30 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

5596

OptionProbability

Taylor Rehmet

Leigh Wambsganss

Other

76

18

6

Will Barron Trump graduate from NYU Stern School of Business?

Apr 20, 11:46 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.09%chance

7416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will the US undergo Stagflation before the 2026 midterms?

May 4, 11:12 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

8354

OptionProbability

Inflation but no GDP abnormality

No abnormalities in inflation & GDP

Yes on Stagflation (high inflation & recession)

Recession but no inflation abnormality

High inflation and GDP growth

High GDP but no inflation abnormality

Deflation/low inflation and recession

Deflation/low inflation but no GDP abnormality

Deflation/low inflation & high GDP growth

23

23

18

17

6

4

4

3

3

Will a sub-20 ranked college or university break the top 5 by 2050?

Dec 12, 5:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

61.32%chance

12267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

817

Will 100 million quadruped robots be manufactured before 2034?

May 21, 1:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.05%chance

6188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

82

1 in 6 Adults are NEET in 2031 (UK)

May 28, 12:50 AMJun 30, 11:00 PM

17%chance

457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

90

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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