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Effect News

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34%chance

643689081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5243

4758

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.66%chance

48290312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7387

4939

Will there be 10 new effective altruist billionaires in the next 5 years?

Jul 1, 12:42 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

24.76%chance

24549138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1874

1695

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Oct 21, 3:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.08%chance

13411475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2366

1862

Effective Altruist organization commits serious human rights abuses "for the greater good" before 2035

Nov 30, 10:02 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

20.78%chance

559461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3422

3106

Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?

Jan 14, 12:24 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

87.8%chance

875712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3425

1185

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health?

Oct 21, 5:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.61%chance

181460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

399

Will trials show DDL-920 effectiveness in humans?

Aug 9, 7:22 AMAug 16, 6:59 PM

21.24%chance

51150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2062

553

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.04%chance

141122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1879

176

Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?

Jun 5, 5:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.47%chance

8726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

Effective Altruism stock [permanent]

Mar 16, 6:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

71.43%chance

23428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

967

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