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Prediction markets for ELDE

Will Destiny beat Elden Ring with 10 vigor before 2030?

Nov 18, 8:32 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.16%chance

167989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4366

635

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027?

Feb 19, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.94%chance

577254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3231

300

When will The Elder Scrolls 6 (TES6) release?

Jun 26, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

302411

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026 or earlier

2029

2030 or later

47

35

11

4

3

Will The Elder Scrolls 6 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 21, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.71%chance

292062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

675

Will "The Eldritch in the 21st century" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 11:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

4300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

971

What will occur first, public discourse of aliens, Half life 3,legal cannabis (US), elder scrolls 6, Gulf stream fails

Jul 31, 9:18 PMJun 30, 3:59 AM

9231

OptionProbability

elder scrolls 6

Gulf stream fails

federally legal cannabis

Half life 3

Aliens

46

23

20

8

2

Will there be an Elden Ring adaptation for Virtual Reality by end of 2030?

Jan 2, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24%chance

883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

151

will the elder scrolls vi release before tontine pays out?

May 25, 1:55 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

29%chance

374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

50

If the sixth installment of the Elder Scrolls series releases before 2040, will it receive a 10 by IGN?

Jan 30, 8:39 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20.31%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

25

Will Elder Scrolls 6 be set in Hammerfell?

Jan 13, 11:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.81%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will we get AI before Elder Scrolls 6?

Oct 16, 3:18 AMApr 1, 6:59 AM

50.45%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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