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Prediction markets for ELDE

Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027?

Feb 19, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

5810215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4174

237

Will Destiny beat Elden Ring with 10 vigor before 2030?

Nov 18, 8:32 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.16%chance

167989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4366

635

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

When will The Elder Scrolls 6 (TES6) release?

Jun 26, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

302411

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026 or earlier

2029

2030 or later

47

35

11

4

3

Will The Elder Scrolls 6 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 21, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.71%chance

292062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

675

Will Eldorado Gold's acquisition result in a copper supply increase by May 11, 2026?

Feb 10, 9:01 AMMay 11, 9:01 AM

13.76%chance

41790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2504

399

Will The Elder Scrolls 6 use generative AI?

Aug 12, 3:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

27977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

143

Will "The Eldritch in the 21st century" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 11:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.22%chance

5320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

991

Will Bethesda publicly announce a release date for The Elder Scrolls VI before January 1, 2027?

Feb 17, 9:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.12%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

Will The Elder Scrolls VI have a 90%+ all reviews rating on steam 6 months after its release?

Apr 29, 4:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

28.42%chance

496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

75

Will there be an Elden Ring adaptation for Virtual Reality by end of 2030?

Jan 2, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24%chance

883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

151

If the sixth installment of the Elder Scrolls series releases before 2040, will it receive a 10 by IGN?

Jan 30, 8:39 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20.31%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

25

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