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Prediction markets for ELDE

Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027?

Feb 19, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

5810215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4174

237

Will Destiny beat Elden Ring with 10 vigor before 2030?

Nov 18, 8:32 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.16%chance

167989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4366

635

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

When will The Elder Scrolls 6 (TES6) release?

Jun 26, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

302411

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026 or earlier

2029

2030 or later

47

35

11

4

3

Will The Elder Scrolls 6 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 21, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.71%chance

292062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

675

Will The Elder Scrolls 6 use generative AI?

Aug 12, 3:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

27977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

143

Will Eldorado Gold's acquisition result in a copper supply increase by May 11, 2026?

Feb 10, 9:01 AMMay 11, 9:01 AM

36.6%chance

2513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1316

760

Will "The Eldritch in the 21st century" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 11:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.97%chance

5317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

988

What will occur first, public discourse of aliens, Half life 3,legal cannabis (US), elder scrolls 6, Gulf stream fails

Jul 31, 9:18 PMJun 30, 3:59 AM

9231

OptionProbability

elder scrolls 6

Gulf stream fails

federally legal cannabis

Half life 3

Aliens

46

23

20

8

2

Will Bethesda publicly announce a release date for The Elder Scrolls VI before January 1, 2027?

Feb 17, 9:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.12%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

Will there be an Elden Ring adaptation for Virtual Reality by end of 2030?

Jan 2, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24%chance

883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

151

How many times will Elden Ring get GOTY between now and 2070

Aug 17, 6:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

260

OptionProbability

3-5

1-2

6-8

9-10

37

34

20

9

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