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Election Day 2024 News

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Prediction markets for Election Day 2024

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

112369428

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

End of 2025 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

20

20

19

9

7

2

1

1

1

0

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

50%chance

428156087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8797

3953

If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)

Mar 4, 3:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

95.86%chance

23695344

OptionVotes

NO

YES

35095

3769

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

48.71%chance

19782934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8638

4393

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3068693

OptionProbability

Resolves No at end of 2025

Resolves No at end of 2026

Resolves No at end of 2027

Resolves No at end of 2030

Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

Resolves No at end of 2024

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

73.72%chance

7511924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2338

983

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72.65%chance

4110374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1630

614

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

Feb 2, 3:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

77.48%chance

705106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1905

1060

What will be the party of the next President of the United States?

Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

163999

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

Other

54

44

1

If there's a recession before election day 2024, will a Democrat win the presidential election?

Dec 11, 3:54 PMSep 2, 2:59 AM

1%chance

103406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3380

71

Will the president elected in 2024 die before inauguration day 2029

Mar 17, 10:31 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

24.41%chance

13547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

375

200

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, what percentage of Americans will live on less than $40 per day in 2028?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

26.91%chance

583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

208

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