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Election Day 2024 News

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Prediction markets for Election Day 2024

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

117369894

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

17

17

17

10

7

5

2

1

0

0

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

13.16%chance

218106597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15171

4760

What is the risk-free interest rate on Manifold, now that loans are gone back?

Jul 6, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3069184

OptionProbability

Resolves No at end of 2025

Resolves No at end of 2026

Resolves No at end of 2027

Resolves No at end of 2030

Resolves No after Election Day (Nov 5, 2024)

Resolves No at end of 2024

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2.41%chance

9330814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6358

157

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

63.77%chance

8413130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

655

What will be the party of the next President of the United States?

Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

266885

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

Other

59

40

1

Will there be a US-China war if Trump gets elected in 2024?

Jul 15, 8:26 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

15.3%chance

226177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2352

425

Will the next U.S. President (elected in Nov. 2024 & inaugurated in Jan. 2025) serve their full 4-year term?

Feb 2, 3:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

75.74%chance

715706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1788

1096

Will the president elected in 2024 complete his or her term?

Jan 23, 6:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.14%chance

403556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

911

How much progress will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact make by the 2028 election?

Jul 1, 7:52 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

19.23%chance

211854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

942

Will the president elected in 2024 die before inauguration day 2029

Mar 17, 10:31 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

21.16%chance

151002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

427

190

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, what percentage of Americans will live on less than $40 per day in 2028?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

26.91%chance

583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

208

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