Election Law News

YES

He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

He leaves Argentina during his first term

He travels to Chile during his first term

He travels to Brazil during his first term

He is photographed with Elon Musk

A photo of him with Trump is released

A photo of Milei with Biden is released

His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position

Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?

Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?

Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]

Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]

Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better

His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered

Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]

Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39

Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%

According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]

There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.

A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him

Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?

He wins reelection to a 2nd term

The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]

LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?

The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]

Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place

LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?

He travels to Bolivia

Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term

Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup

Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)

He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal

He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX

Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees

Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]

He goes incommunicado for at least a week

Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)

Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish

He marries during his first term

He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term

US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina

He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week

He officially converts to Judaism

There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired

He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it

Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup

Will he ever be TIME person of the year?

Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term

He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years

He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]

He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]

Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)

Argentina will win the 2026 world cup

He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]

The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office

The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use

He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office

He travels to Russia during his first term

Argentina will declare war

He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election

He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash

Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?

He has a child during his first term

He is excommunicated by the catholic church

He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]

He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash

He passes away during his first term before completion

There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side

Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week

NO

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

"lower taxes"

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

"keep men out of women’s sports"

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

"stop all COVID mandates"

"more jobs for American workers"

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

"cut the number of school administrators"

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

"bigger paychecks"

"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

"passing a digital bill of rights"

"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

declassify the 'Epstein files'

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

"increase fairness through price transparency"

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

"end surprise medical billing"

"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

NO

23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.)

22nd (Limits the number of times a person can be elected president.)

11th (Makes states immune from suits from out-of-state citizens and foreigners not living within the state borders; lays the foundation for state sovereign immunity.)

26th (Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens 18 years of age or older, to vote on account of age.)

20th (Changes dates on which terms of president and VP, and of members of Congress, begin and end, to January 20 and January 3 respectively. States that if president-elect dies before taking office, VP–elect is to be inaugurated president)

25th (Addresses succession to the presidency and establishes procedures both for filling a vacancy in the office of the vice president and responding to presidential disabilities.)

27th (Delays laws affecting Congressional salary from taking effect until after the next election of representatives.)

5th (Sets out rules for indictment by grand jury and eminent domain, protects the right to due process, and prohibits self-incrimination and double jeopardy.)

6th (Protects the right to a speedy public trial by jury, to notification of criminal accusations, to confront the accuser, to obtain witnesses and to retain counsel.)

12th (Revises presidential election procedures by having the president and vice president elected together as opposed to the vice president being the runner up in the presidential election.)

3rd (Restricts the quartering of soldiers in private homes.)

15th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race, color or previous condition of servitude.)

24th (Prohibits the revocation of voting rights due to the non-payment of a poll tax or any other tax.)

1st (Protects freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and the right to petition the government.)

4th (Prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures and sets out requirements for search warrants based on probable cause.)

7th (Provides for the right to a jury trial in civil lawsuits.)

8th (Prohibits excessive fines and excessive bail, as well as cruel and unusual punishment.)

9th (States that rights not enumerated in the Constitution are retained by the people.)

10th (States that the federal government possesses only those powers delegated, or enumerated, to it through the Constitution, and that all other powers are reserved to the States, or to the people.)

13th (Abolishes slavery and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime.)

17th (Establishes the direct election of United States senators by popular vote.)

21st (Repeals the 18th Amendment and makes it a federal offense to transport or import intoxicating liquors into U.S. states and territories where such is prohibited by law.)

2nd (Protects the right to keep and bear arms.)

14th (Defines citizenship, contains the Privileges or Immunities Clause, the Due Process Clause, and the Equal Protection Clause, and deals with post–Civil War issues.)

16th (Permits Congress to levy an income tax without apportioning it among the various states or basing it on the United States Census.)

YES

YES

Selzer Wins: Court grants Selzer's motion to dismiss or finds her not liable for any damages.

Parties Settle

Other

Other

Settled out of court

Plaintiffs win

YES

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.