Election Week News

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

84.04%chance

12427775

OptionVotes

YES

11914

9314

Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?

Oct 16, 6:00 AMJan 20, 7:59 AM

8.37%chance

3422439

OptionVotes

YES

3309

302

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

547116

OptionVotes

YES

1739

575

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

Jan 22, 8:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.55%chance

223853

OptionVotes

YES

12830

7603

Will Polymarket allow US persons to trade on the 2026 midterms?

Mar 15, 5:43 AMNov 11, 5:59 AM

78.65%chance

162623

OptionVotes

YES

1919

521

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

YES

1013

926

Will Rory Stewart be a politician again by 2030?

Feb 25, 5:19 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

33.84%chance

211363

OptionVotes

YES

1412

689

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?

Nov 7, 11:04 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

35.71%chance

5583

OptionVotes

YES

1342

745

Will Zohran Mamdani turn centrist? Would it help/hurt his chances? [resolved by poll post-election]

Jul 18, 12:42 PMNov 11, 1:29 PM

12548

OptionProbability

“Mamdani didn’t appease centrists and it would have hurt his campaign” is highest voted

“Mamdani appeased centrists, and it helped his campaign” is highest voted

“Mamdani appeased centrists, and it hurt his campaign” is highest voted

“Mamdani didn’t appease centrists but it would have helped his campaign” is highest voted

Other

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Jan 15, 11:43 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

16.39%chance

12472

OptionVotes

YES

233

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Jan 15, 11:45 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

11.15%chance

12412

OptionVotes

YES

469

Home State of 2028 US Election Vice-Presidential Winner

Dec 4, 7:59 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2120

OptionProbability

Pennsylvania

Texas

Georgia

Arizona

Other

Ohio

California

Michigan

Wisconsin

North Carolina

Kentucky

Virginia

Florida

New York

Illinois

Massachusetts

South Carolina

New Jersey

Minnesota

Colorado

Maryland

Election Week News

Prediction markets for Election Week

Prediction markets for Election Week

Prediction markets for Election Week

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

Will Polymarket allow US persons to trade on the 2026 midterms?

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Will Rory Stewart be a politician again by 2030?

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?

Will Zohran Mamdani turn centrist? Would it help/hurt his chances? [resolved by poll post-election]

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Home State of 2028 US Election Vice-Presidential Winner

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