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Prediction markets for Election Week

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

Jan 22, 8:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.04%chance

6545061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31568

2826

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

68%chance

12929843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11121

5741

Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?

Oct 16, 6:00 AMJan 20, 7:59 AM

6.9%chance

3523229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3672

272

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

23.81%chance

557166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1789

559

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.24%chance

316832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

1618

Will Polymarket allow US persons to trade on the 2026 midterms?

Mar 15, 5:43 AMNov 11, 5:59 AM

79.39%chance

172664

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1963

509

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

926

Will Rory Stewart be a politician again by 2030?

Feb 25, 5:19 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

33.84%chance

211363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1412

689

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?

Nov 7, 11:04 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

41.68%chance

6683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

845

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Jan 15, 11:43 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

16.39%chance

12472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

58

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Jan 15, 11:45 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

11.15%chance

12412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

469

78

Polymarket exceeds $6B trading volume in June 2026?

Nov 20, 4:39 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

43.5%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

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