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Prediction markets for Election Week

Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?

Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM

75.1%chance

13533531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10389

7611

Will the 25th Amendment be invoked as to transfer presidential authority from Trump?

Oct 16, 6:00 AMJan 20, 7:59 AM

8.54%chance

3823872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3291

307

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.25%chance

357419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3130

1464

Will Trump actually nominate a Libertarian to his Cabinet if elected?

Jun 2, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

23.81%chance

557166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1789

559

Will Polymarket allow US persons to trade on the 2026 midterms?

Mar 15, 5:43 AMNov 11, 5:59 AM

81.12%chance

203174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2073

482

If Trump is re-elected in 2024, will he try to hold onto power after 2028?

Jan 10, 7:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

261864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

926

Will Rory Stewart be a politician again by 2030?

Feb 25, 5:19 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

33.84%chance

211363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1412

689

Will Bibi Netanyahu lose power during or in the aftermath after the 2023 Hamas-Israel War

Oct 14, 1:18 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

11%chance

111038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

367

23

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2026 elections?

Nov 7, 11:04 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

41.68%chance

6683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

845

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 15 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Jan 15, 11:43 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

12.17%chance

13522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

50

If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?

Jan 15, 11:45 PMNov 4, 5:59 AM

11.15%chance

13432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

469

78

Will Kamala be the Democratic party nominee in 2032?

Nov 6, 10:25 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

12.24%chance

8283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

268

37

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