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Prediction markets for ELEMENT

Will any popular mobile device feature a touchscreen with the ability to hover your finger above a screen element by the beginning of 2035?

Jan 6, 8:02 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

88.52%chance

261673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

903

Will the periodic table contain more than 118 elements before 2045?

Sep 16, 11:00 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

87.56%chance

211286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1636

859

Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?

Jan 28, 6:09 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

151083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

488

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.22%chance

231071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

914

Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.71%chance

12941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

864

47

Will an element with an atomic number greater than that of oganesson (118) be synthesized before 2028?

Jul 15, 9:57 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

33.27%chance

21880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1423

672

When will ununennium (Element 119) be named?

Oct 21, 3:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10656

OptionProbability

Not by 2050

2030 - 2034

2035 - 2039

2040 - 2044

2045 - 2049

Before 2030

34

19

15

12

11

9

Will element 119 be discovered by the end of 2030?

Feb 21, 12:40 AMDec 31, 1:00 PM

35.62%chance

13495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

996

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2030)

Aug 7, 2:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.69%chance

9237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

112

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

Will LLM inference for the largest models run on analogue circuitry as the primary element of computuation by end 2028?

Nov 26, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.64%chance

6167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

95

When a new element be added to the periodic table of elements before the end of 2040?

Jan 11, 12:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.84%chance

659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

185

123

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