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Prediction markets for ELEMENT

CA cities failing their housing element is gonna be a colossal ($100s Billions) deal, in hindsight in 2025

Jan 31, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.77%chance

241795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2247

563

Does the asteroid polyhymnia contain elements missing from the periodic table?

Oct 25, 2:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.4%chance

271719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

939

Will any popular mobile device feature a touchscreen with the ability to hover your finger above a screen element by the beginning of 2035?

Jan 6, 8:02 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

88.52%chance

261673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

903

Will the periodic table contain more than 118 elements before 2045?

Sep 16, 11:00 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

87.56%chance

211286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1636

859

Will a new element be discovered before the end of 2025?

Jan 12, 4:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.71%chance

121175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

708

121

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.23%chance

231069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1462

914

Will an element with an atomic number greater than that of oganesson (118) be synthesized before 2028?

Jul 15, 9:57 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.03%chance

16676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

731

When will ununennium (Element 119) be named?

Oct 21, 3:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9651

OptionProbability

Not by 2050

2035 - 2039

2030 - 2034

2040 - 2044

2045 - 2049

Before 2030

35

16

15

13

12

9

Will an element of the periodic table (Riconium) be named after Jose Luis Ricon (JLR)?

Dec 9, 5:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

0.82%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

590

45

Will element 119 be discovered by the end of 2030?

Feb 21, 12:40 AMDec 31, 1:00 PM

35.62%chance

13495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

996

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

When a new element be added to the periodic table of elements before the end of 2028?

Jan 11, 12:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.04%chance

587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

127

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