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Prediction markets for Elements

Will any popular mobile device feature a touchscreen with the ability to hover your finger above a screen element by the beginning of 2035?

Jan 6, 8:02 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

88.52%chance

261673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

903

Will the periodic table contain more than 118 elements before 2045?

Sep 16, 11:00 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

87.56%chance

211286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1636

859

Will elements of the Trump administration attempt a coup by the end of January 2029?

Jan 28, 6:09 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

38%chance

151083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

488

Will humans have developed the infrastructure to extract rare elements from sources outside of Earth by the year 2200?

Jan 25, 2:24 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

92.22%chance

231071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

914

Will an element with an atomic number greater than that of oganesson (118) be synthesized before 2028?

Jul 15, 9:57 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.22%chance

17679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

734

When will ununennium (Element 119) be named?

Oct 21, 3:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10656

OptionProbability

Not by 2050

2030 - 2034

2035 - 2039

2040 - 2044

2045 - 2049

Before 2030

34

19

15

12

11

9

Most expensive elemental prices decrease by end of year?

Feb 20, 11:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8592

OptionProbability

Beryllium (857 USD/KG)

Neptunium (660k USD/KG)

Caesium (61.8k USD/KG)

Scandium (3.46k USD/KG)

Thulium (6.2k USD/KG)

Krypton (290 USD/KG)

N/A

Technetium (100k USD/KG)

Osmium (30k USD/KG)

Rubidium (15.5k USD/KG)

Lutetium

Palladium (49.5k USD/KG)

Rhodium (368k USD/KG)

Thallium (4.2k USD/KG)

Xenon (1.8k USD/KG)

Terbium (4.03k USD/KG)

Dysprosium (931 USD/KG)

Neon (630 USD/KG)

Ruthenium (44.9k USD/KG)

Rhenium (5.75k USD/KG)

Silver (2.74k USD/KG)

Iridium (207k USD/KG)

Platinum (68.26k USD/KG)

Gold (165.25k USD/KG)

Hafnium (12k USD/KG)

59

55

55

50

50

50

50

38

38

38

38

35

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

34

31

29

24

23

17

Will element 119 be discovered by the end of 2030?

Feb 21, 12:40 AMDec 31, 1:00 PM

35.62%chance

13495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

996

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2030)

Aug 7, 2:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.69%chance

9237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

112

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)

Oct 14, 1:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.63%chance

14226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

Will LLM inference for the largest models run on analogue circuitry as the primary element of computuation by end 2028?

Nov 26, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.74%chance

5157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

97

Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?

May 7, 4:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.32%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

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