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Prediction markets for Elo

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

6.79%chance

426180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5232

429

Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?

Jul 19, 5:16 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

66.73%chance

8865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

847

Which chess prodigy will have the highest Elo rating at the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 5:41 PMJan 1, 5:36 PM

9848

OptionProbability

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Javokhir Sindarov

Vincent Keymer

Arjun Erigaisi

Gukesh D

Praggnanandhaa R

Alireza Firouzja

Hans Niemann

Nihal Sarin

Awonder Liang

25

19

14

13

8

7

7

3

3

3

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

Nov 20, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.77%chance

14477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

51

Who will be the first human grandmaster to have FIDE Standard ELO > 2900

Sep 9, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17461

OptionProbability

Other

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

Dommaraju Gukesh

Magnus Carlsen

Alireza Firouzja

74

9

9

6

3

Will I reach 2000 elo on chess.com by eoy 2026?

Apr 21, 12:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

10441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

41

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.84%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2030?

Jul 1, 5:49 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.18%chance

9115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

Apr 17, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

1

Will DauT aoe2 elo go below 2000 by eoy2028

Jul 24, 8:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Jun 18, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

When will I get over 250 chess elo?

Jul 1, 2:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

212

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

Before Dec 2026

62

50

50

50

50

50

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