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Elo News

Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)

Dec 1, 1:49 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

2710014

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Hikaru Nakamura

Arjun Erigaisi

Alireza Firouzja

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Vincent Keymer

D Gukesh

Praggnanandhaa R

Other

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Magnus Carlsen

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Anish Giri

Richard Rapport

Vidit Gujrathi

Hans Niemann

35

20

9

7

7

6

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.24%chance

405630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4682

474

Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?

Feb 5, 4:47 PMJul 1, 1:00 AM

95.85%chance

164922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4805

208

Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?

Jul 19, 5:16 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

66.73%chance

8865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

837

647

Who will be the first human grandmaster to have FIDE Standard ELO > 2900

Sep 9, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17461

OptionProbability

Other

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

Dommaraju Gukesh

Magnus Carlsen

Alireza Firouzja

74

9

9

6

3

Which chess prodigy will have the highest Elo rating at the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 5:41 PMJan 1, 5:36 PM

4369

OptionProbability

Arjun Erigaisi

Gukesh D

Vincent Keymer

Praggnanandhaa R

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Alireza Firouzja

Javokhir Sindarov

Hans Niemann

Nihal Sarin

Awonder Liang

17

13

13

12

12

11

10

4

4

4

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

Nov 20, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.72%chance

7319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Which LLM Maker will have the largest Emotional Intelligence Benchmark Elo Score on https://eqbench.com on Jan 1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1109

OptionProbability

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

Nous Research (E.g. Hermes series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Other

44

32

5

5

5

5

5

Who will hit 2700 elo first in MCSR Ranked?

Jan 29, 2:39 AMMay 3, 1:32 AM

4106

OptionProbability

No one reaches 2700 elo

Infume

Feinberg

hackingnoises

edcr

doogile

silverrruns

lowk3y_

nahhann

Aquacorde

Watermelon1708

bing_pigs

BeefSalad

BadGamer

Other

15

11

11

10

9

8

8

8

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.74%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.88%chance

327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

85

Will DauT aoe2 elo go below 2000 by eoy2028

Jul 24, 8:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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