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Prediction markets for Elo

Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?

Dec 9, 8:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9889403

OptionProbability

Google

OpenAI

xAI

Anthropic

None listed here

Meta

38

29

12

10

9

3

Will I get to 1000 Elo rapid rating on chess.com in 2025

Jan 4, 2:56 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

84.43%chance

3320256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2329

429

Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)

Dec 1, 1:49 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

227829

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Arjun Erigaisi

Praggnanandhaa R

D Gukesh

Hikaru Nakamura

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Alireza Firouzja

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Magnus Carlsen

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Anish Giri

Richard Rapport

Vidit Gujrathi

Vincent Keymer

Hans Niemann

Other

40

14

13

13

8

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will someone new reach 2800 Elo rating in 2025?

May 18, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.48%chance

206225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1857

538

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.24%chance

405630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4682

474

Will Magnus Carlsen drop below 2800 Elo at any point before 2026?

May 29, 9:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.01%chance

185575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3953

253

EOY 2025: Will open LLMs perform at least as well as 50 Elo below closed-source LLMs on coding?

Jul 27, 10:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.73%chance

163820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

650

Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?

Feb 5, 4:47 PMJul 1, 1:00 AM

83.24%chance

121922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2229

449

Will we discover a chess player with ELO > 1500 cheating in an over-the-board chess tournament using anal devices by 2025?

Dec 22, 11:04 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.49%chance

21960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1306

932

What will my chess elo rating be at the end of the year?

Mar 27, 5:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9790

OptionProbability

701-900

501-700

901-1100

301-500

1101-1300

100-300

1301-1500

1501-1700

1701-1900

1901-2100

2101-2300

2301-2500

2501-2700

2701-2900

2901-3100

Other

24

23

12

11

8

4

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?

Jul 19, 5:16 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

85.38%chance

6650

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

222

Before Feb 2026, will a transformer based reasoning model >1800 elo be able to explain 3+ chess lines at any position?

Jan 28, 10:50 PMFeb 2, 6:59 AM

55.1%chance

6485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

903

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