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Prediction markets for Elo

Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)

Dec 1, 1:49 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3512676

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Javokhir Sindarov

Hikaru Nakamura

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Vincent Keymer

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş

Arjun Erigaisi

Other

Alireza Firouzja

D Gukesh

Anish Giri

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Praggnanandhaa R

Magnus Carlsen

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Vidit Gujrathi

Richard Rapport

Hans Niemann

24

20

16

10

9

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.8%chance

415780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4832

461

Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?

Feb 5, 4:47 PMJul 1, 1:00 AM

93.91%chance

185024

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3926

255

AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?

Nov 27, 2:04 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

85.38%chance

323561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

401

128

Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?

Jul 19, 5:16 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

66.73%chance

8865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

847

Which chess prodigy will have the highest Elo rating at the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 5:41 PMJan 1, 5:36 PM

9656

OptionProbability

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Javokhir Sindarov

Vincent Keymer

Arjun Erigaisi

Praggnanandhaa R

Gukesh D

Alireza Firouzja

Hans Niemann

Nihal Sarin

Awonder Liang

25

25

17

7

6

6

6

3

2

2

Who will be the first human grandmaster to have FIDE Standard ELO > 2900

Sep 9, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17461

OptionProbability

Other

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

Dommaraju Gukesh

Magnus Carlsen

Alireza Firouzja

74

9

9

6

3

Will I reach 2000 elo on chess.com by eoy 2026?

Apr 21, 12:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14%chance

8274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Which LLM Maker will have the largest Emotional Intelligence Benchmark Elo Score on https://eqbench.com on Jan 1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1109

OptionProbability

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

Nous Research (E.g. Hermes series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Other

44

32

5

5

5

5

5

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.74%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.43%chance

457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

Apr 17, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

3

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