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Prediction markets for Elo

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2.69%chance

469713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8733

272

Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?

Nov 4, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.64%chance

98202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17028

5873

AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?

Nov 27, 2:04 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

76.85%chance

354030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

278

156

When will I get over 250 chess elo?

Jul 1, 2:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

71350

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Dec 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Nov 2026

99

20

1

1

1

1

Will I reach 2000 elo on chess.com by eoy 2026?

Apr 21, 12:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

131268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?

Jul 19, 5:16 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

67.74%chance

10925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

875

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

Nov 20, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.35%chance

15608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

41

Who will be the first human grandmaster to have FIDE Standard ELO > 2900

Sep 9, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17461

OptionProbability

Other

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

Dommaraju Gukesh

Magnus Carlsen

Alireza Firouzja

74

9

9

6

3

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.38%chance

7344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

294

34

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

6193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

Which LLM Maker will have the largest Emotional Intelligence Benchmark Elo Score on https://eqbench.com on Jan 1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:18 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1109

OptionProbability

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

Nous Research (E.g. Hermes series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Other

44

32

5

5

5

5

5

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

Apr 17, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

1

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