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Prediction markets for Elo

Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)

Dec 1, 1:49 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3712737

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Javokhir Sindarov

Hikaru Nakamura

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Vincent Keymer

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş

Arjun Erigaisi

Other

Alireza Firouzja

D Gukesh

Anish Giri

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Praggnanandhaa R

Magnus Carlsen

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Vidit Gujrathi

Hans Niemann

Richard Rapport

24

20

16

10

8

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?

Feb 5, 4:47 PMJul 1, 1:00 AM

97.24%chance

227056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5938

168

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.8%chance

415780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4832

461

AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?

Nov 27, 2:04 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

85.38%chance

323561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

401

128

Will a publicly available LLM/Agent beat a 2000 rated Elo chess player online rapid chess by March 2027?

Jul 19, 5:16 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

66.73%chance

8865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

847

Who will be the first human grandmaster to have FIDE Standard ELO > 2900

Sep 9, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17461

OptionProbability

Other

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

Dommaraju Gukesh

Magnus Carlsen

Alireza Firouzja

74

9

9

6

3

Any LMArena model breaks 1600 Elo by 2027?

Nov 20, 8:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.54%chance

10392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will I reach 2000 elo on chess.com by eoy 2026?

Apr 21, 12:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14%chance

8274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Any LMArena model breaks 1650 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.93%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Any LMArena model breaks 1700 Elo by 2027?

Nov 23, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.57%chance

3101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Open Weights text-to-image model with Elo ≥ 1200 on Artificial Analysis by EOY 2026?

Apr 17, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

3

Will DauT aoe2 elo go below 2000 by eoy2028

Jul 24, 8:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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