Email News

Manifest happens and >600 attendees

Mana-purchasable profile flair

New market type

Optional paid subscription plan(s) for users

You earn mana if you add liquidity to someone else’s market (trader bonus, fees etc)

New type(s) of user badge

@acc is active

Anybody stays in Masters all 12 months

Subsidizers get bonuses or fees from trader activity (or a cut of such from creator's share)

Spoiler resolutions feature added

Merch shop sends tracking information to your email

manifold.markets/home changes to something other than Browse

Topics properly nest and show child topic markets

Mentioned in NYT

New leagues division

Automatic house-provided subsidies

Active traders (daily 7d avg) >2000 at any point

$10k+ mana sales in one day

Mana Merch Shop sells Ṁ10M+

manifold UI-based auto-resolutions options added

Top-10 user on profit/creator/referral leaderboard permabanned

Someone loses Ṁ1M in a single market

Partner-esque program (re)launches

A mod permabanned

New currency

3+ ManifestXs

A previously banned user becomes a mod

Raises $10M+ in external funding

A founder returns

Manifold ad visible on TV in a stadium

ReReRePivot (a new method for real money launches)

Site completely offline for continuous 24h+

House-mediated p2p loans

Acquired by another prediction market company

Charity program returns and $100k+ donated

Site shuts down permanently/indefinitely

YES

NO

NO

I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

Will someone successfully have us read, approvingly, an AI story without knowing

Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

Will we have 20+ this year?

Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

Will we meet in the library at least once?

Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?

YES

YES

NO

YES