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OptionProbability
US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility
Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)
UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution
Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem
Iranian General killed inside Iran
Donald Trump declares victory
Iranian government official declares victory
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days
Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours
War Ends in June
500+ Iranian civilians killed
War ends in 2025
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
Fordow facility successfully bombed
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil
Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"
Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal
A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)
There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.
Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace
Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA
Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours
The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%
Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites
>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict
At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities
A second cease-fire is announced
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict
Israel government dissolves
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon
A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil
Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Iran launches a cruise missile
Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform
Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA
Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.
Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally
Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council
Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel
Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)
Iran tests a nuclear weapon
A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank
State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran
Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed
Iranian government dissolves
UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
Saudi Arabia attacks Iran
WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)
Qatar attacks Iran
War ends in July
≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict
Iran regime change
Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)
Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi
There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026
Total casualties exceed 10,000
US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)
Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran
Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)
Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive
A nuclear weapon is used offensively.
Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)
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OptionProbability
President with Green Eyes elected
Crewed mission to Phobos
Room temperature superconductor discovered
USA adds 52nd state
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
UK has a queen again
Olympics hosted in Japan again
ChatGPT 10 releases
RSA-2048 cracked
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
Batman enters the public domain
The Beatles music enters the public domain
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Norway Bans Whaling
African company or country lands on moon
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
Olympics hosted in Africa
Japan Bans Whaling
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
First hispanic USA president
End support date for Windows 12
Pickleball in the Olympics
Team Fortress 3 releases
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
ChatGPT 7 releases
human dies on the moon
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
The first $10T market cap company
USA Adds 51st state
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
Superman enters the public domain
Iceland Bans Whaling
Human walks on mars
The version after Windows 12 releases
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
Destiny retires from regular streaming
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
Peppa Pig ends
EU reaches 30 member states
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
Windows 11 end support date
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
Blood Meridian movie release
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Civilization 8 releases
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
First female USA president
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
ChatGPT 6 releases
South Park ends
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
1500 Pokemon Released
Simpsons ends
Xi no longer in power in China
First Trillionaire (USD)
Chicago ends on Broadway
1300 Pokemon Released
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
Trump Dies
Another MLB perfect game pitched
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Human walks on moon again
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
Half Life 3 releases
One piece manga ends
a USA president impeached again
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Skibidi Toilet ends
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
Shrek 5 releases
Sagrada Familia Church completed
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
The first $5T market cap company
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
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OptionProbability
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
"lower taxes"
"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"
"keep men out of women’s sports"
"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"
"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"
"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"
"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
"stop all COVID mandates"
"more jobs for American workers"
"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"
"cut the number of school administrators"
"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"
"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"
"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"
"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"
"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"
"bigger paychecks"
"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"
"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"
"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"
"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"
"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"
"passing a digital bill of rights"
"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"
declassify the 'Epstein files'
"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"
"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"
"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"
"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"
"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"
"increase fairness through price transparency"
"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"
"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"
"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"
"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"
"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"
"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"
"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"
"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"
"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"
"end surprise medical billing"
"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"
"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"
"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"
"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"
"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"
"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"
"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"
"keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
1525
813
OptionProbability
USA ends embargo on Cuba
USA adds 51st state
USA has another bachelor president
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OptionProbability
Conditional on the next US president being a Democrat, will they lift the embargo on Cuba?
Conditional on the next US president being a Republican, will they lift the embargo on Cuba?
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OptionVotes
NO
YES
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143
OptionVotes
NO
YES
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927
OptionVotes
YES
NO
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61
OptionVotes
NO
YES
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