Emergence AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

59065

10415

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

175742

OptionVotes

YES

15357

6512

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM

11.79%chance

354112

OptionVotes

YES

2735

366

SOAI#6: “AI neutrality” emerges as a foreign policy doctrine as some nations cannot or fail to develop sovereign AI

Oct 9, 11:06 PMDec 13, 12:06 AM

15.74%chance

202322

OptionVotes

YES

2314

432

SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security

Oct 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.51%chance

302035

OptionVotes

YES

1665

601

Artificial consciousness will emerge in the course of increasing AI capabilities

Mar 24, 2:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

67.46%chance

361966

OptionVotes

YES

1236

855

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.67%chance

421856

OptionVotes

YES

1242

876

Will an AI system show emergent capabilities in psychotherapy before 2028 ?

Nov 30, 1:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.41%chance

18516

OptionVotes

YES

1293

801

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

Feb 5, 5:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9.49%chance

11456

OptionVotes

YES

716

262

Will we see the emergence of a 'super AI network' before 2035 ?

Jan 18, 8:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.99%chance

13432

OptionVotes

YES

985

944

Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?

Jul 31, 7:50 AMJul 31, 1:29 AM

20.91%chance

27415

OptionVotes

YES

997

985

Emilia Moore AI predictions 2026

Dec 4, 6:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5290

OptionProbability

A political “anti-Clanker” movement emerges, with a “made without AI” designation on media and products.

AI proficiency becomes a graduation requirement in at least one major state university system (likely the UCs)

At least one major Hollywood studio makes a U-turn on AI, spurring a wave of usage on big budget films.

Billboard Top 40 and the NYT Bestseller List both have several debuts later revealed to be AI.

Voice dictation saturates engineering with over 50 percent usage in startups and big tech, and spreads outside Silicon Valley.

AI generated photos become normalized for headshots, dating app pics, Christmas cards, etc.

At least 10 percent of Fortune 500 companies mandate AI voice interviews for intern and entry level roles.

Driving a car yourself becomes widely viewed as negligent in markets where Waymo and FSD are live.

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Prediction markets for Emergence AI

Prediction markets for Emergence AI

Prediction markets for Emergence AI

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

SOAI#6: “AI neutrality” emerges as a foreign policy doctrine as some nations cannot or fail to develop sovereign AI

SOAI#4: A deepfake/agent-driven cyber attack triggers the first NATO/UN emergency debate on AI security

Artificial consciousness will emerge in the course of increasing AI capabilities

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Will an AI system show emergent capabilities in psychotherapy before 2028 ?

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

Will we see the emergence of a 'super AI network' before 2035 ?

Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?

Emilia Moore AI predictions 2026

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