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Emergence AI News

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.17%chance

793419470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25491

17311

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

3512403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19709

5074

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Artificial consciousness will emerge in the course of increasing AI capabilities

Mar 24, 2:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

67.46%chance

361966

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

855

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

74.93%chance

401206

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

810

Will a NATO or EU nation declare a national emergency due to AI before 2026?

May 12, 9:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.67%chance

30932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

947

Will an AI system show emergent capabilities in psychotherapy before 2028 ?

Nov 30, 1:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.41%chance

18516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1293

801

Will we see the emergence of a 'super AI network' before 2035 ?

Jan 18, 8:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.99%chance

13432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

944

Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?

Jul 31, 7:50 AMJul 31, 1:29 AM

20.51%chance

26410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

980

Will evidence emerge that Anthropic's pursuit of regulatory capture is aided by U.S. Adversaries by 2027 year end?

Feb 5, 5:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10.17%chance

9405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

675

266

Will Mia Aiyana Cardenas (TKS=>NYU) win emergent ventures by EOY 2025?

Nov 12, 6:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.98%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

85

58

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