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Top stories

U.S. Accelerates Screwworm Fight With Emergency Drug Powers and $750 Million Fly Factory

US Domestic Policy

U.S. Accelerates Screwworm Fight With Emergency Drug Powers and $750 Million Fly Factory

Authors

12

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Emergency Use Authorizations

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

16254471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

894

Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.72%chance

182142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

554

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.98%chance

10610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

866

Will a third dengue vaccine be approved before 2050?

Jan 4, 12:32 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

89.94%chance

8542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

657

333

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of herpes simplex infection before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.29%chance

9506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

373

360

Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030?

Jun 13, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.92%chance

8307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

341

29

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.11%chance

11240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

532

479

Can we create a custom GPT-o3 that is very stupid?

Jun 6, 4:26 PMDec 31, 5:18 PM

72.43%chance

13225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

162

62

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.67%chance

8216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

515

302

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against myeloid leukemia before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.98%chance

5155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

373

300

Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030?

Apr 20, 9:40 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.24%chance

574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

80

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against esophageal adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.51%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

305

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