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Top stories

U.S. Accelerates Screwworm Fight With Emergency Drug Powers and $750 Million Fly Factory

US Domestic Policy

U.S. Accelerates Screwworm Fight With Emergency Drug Powers and $750 Million Fly Factory

Authors

12

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Emergency Use Authorizations

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Jan 1, 8:11 PMJun 30, 7:10 PM

25.98%chance

12026535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

942

Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.58%chance

202570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

450

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.98%chance

10610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

866

Will a third dengue vaccine be approved before 2050?

Jan 4, 12:32 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

89.94%chance

8542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

657

333

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against glioblastoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.85%chance

6331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

614

236

Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030?

Jun 13, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.92%chance

8307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

341

29

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.11%chance

11240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

532

479

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:29 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.43%chance

4205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

357

286

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.66%chance

6187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

40

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Jan 20, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.95%chance

5145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

44

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against esophageal adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.51%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

305

HIV Vaccine fully approved by FDA and commercially available before 2035?

Jun 11, 7:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

37.5%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

77

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