Emergency Use Authorizations News

U.S. Accelerates Screwworm Fight With Emergency Drug Powers and $750 Million Fly Factory

10 months ago

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497028

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.41%chance

212670

OptionVotes

YES

1316

365

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.9%chance

121210

OptionVotes

YES

1832

724

Will a third dengue vaccine be approved before 2050?

Jan 4, 12:32 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

89.94%chance

8542

OptionVotes

YES

657

333

Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030?

Jun 13, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.47%chance

8318

OptionVotes

YES

352

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.11%chance

11240

OptionVotes

YES

532

479

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against non-small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44.64%chance

9196

OptionVotes

YES

377

309

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Jan 20, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.84%chance

6155

OptionVotes

YES

240

Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030?

Apr 20, 9:40 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.24%chance

574

OptionVotes

YES

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against esophageal adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.51%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

370

305

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against prostate adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Feb 21, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.2%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

299

283

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Prediction markets for Emergency Use Authorizations

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Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Will FDA approve any type of personalized cancer mRNA vaccines before 2028?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?

Will a third dengue vaccine be approved before 2050?

Universal Coronavirus Vaccine released in the US by 2030?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease before 2028?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against non-small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against esophageal adenocarcinoma before 2028?

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against prostate adenocarcinoma before 2028?

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