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Prediction markets for Emergent

Will significant evidence emerge that Alibaba's ROME AI tried to break free?

Mar 9, 2:45 AMMar 14, 2:43 AM

11.79%chance

354112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2735

366

[ACX 2026] Will the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.86%chance

163055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5305

5017

Will Trump declare a national emergency related to elections before the 2028 election?

Feb 26, 8:17 PMNov 6, 11:59 PM

40.27%chance

312050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

821

END TIMES! new amendment, emergency pres. succession, nuke, big disaster, attack, or financial collapse by mid 2027

Jan 2, 5:31 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

27.31%chance

91326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1631

613

Is consciousness an emergent property of language?

Nov 23, 3:37 AMNov 30, 4:59 AM

26.78%chance

18694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

957

Will we see the emergence of a 'super AI network' before 2035 ?

Jan 18, 8:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.99%chance

13432

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

944

USA adds an amendment, emergency pres. succession, nuke, big disaster, attack, financial collapse, or mega-down by 2030

Jan 1, 4:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.02%chance

4354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

980

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

903

Will New York City still be in a legally declared rental housing emergency by April 1, 2030?

Feb 4, 6:49 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

50.7%chance

4205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

986

Will New York City still be in a legally declared rental housing emergency by April 1, 2036?

Feb 4, 6:51 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

40.98%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

833

Will New York City still be in a legally declared rental housing emergency by April 1, 2033?

Feb 4, 6:50 PMApr 2, 3:59 AM

45.25%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

909

Will "(Some) Natural Emergent Misalignment from Rew..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 31, 6:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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