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Prediction markets for Empire of AI

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

45%chance

6012466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

785

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1553

644

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7394

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

2030 or later

Other

43

27

20

3

2

2

2

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8170

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

65

21

11

4

Will someone use brainwaves alone to play Age of Empires II (on PC or XBox) well enough to beat Moderate AI by EOY 2028?

Feb 3, 9:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.13%chance

6158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

80

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

00

Who has HIGHEST situational awareness? Paul Christiano, David Krueger, or Jacob Steinhardt?

Apr 25, 2:35 PM

00

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