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Prediction markets for Empire of AI

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

76.02%chance

6514148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1660

648

Will I get a job through a referral before April 2027?

Aug 23, 6:50 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.4%chance

367049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15737

14292

Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?

Aug 16, 4:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.86%chance

12873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

342

29

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.45%chance

5855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

540

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12484

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

2030 or later

Other

66

17

11

2

1

1

1

Will Generative AI become permanent part of our daily lives before 2050?

Oct 31, 4:26 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

4212

OptionProbability

Yes, before 2030

Yes, between 2030 and 2039

Yes, between 2040 and 2049

No, not before 2050

73

15

11

8

Will Jose Luis Ricon ever get HIGHER than the EMPIRE STATE?

May 19, 9:59 PMMay 19, 9:59 PM

88.69%chance

2180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

280

36

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8170

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

65

21

11

4

Will someone use brainwaves alone to play Age of Empires II (on PC or XBox) well enough to beat Moderate AI by EOY 2028?

Feb 3, 9:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.13%chance

6158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

262

80

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

Who has HIGHEST situational awareness? Paul Christiano, David Krueger, or Jacob Steinhardt?

Apr 25, 2:35 PM

10

Potential questions for long bet on Robin Hanson Orthodox Jews thesis (500 mana / 100 per great question or comment)

Oct 16, 1:57 AM

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