OptionVotes
YES
NO
1365
660
OptionProbability
Will the realdonaldtrump manifolder join Hack Club by end of next week?
Will my preferred name still be "jelly" at end of next week?
Will I write a blog post by end of next week?
Will I figure out a good permanent handle for myself by end of next week?
Will I write 2 blog posts by end of next week?
Will Bayesian's weekly profit be >=15000 mana at end of next week?
Will I watch YouTube on my pc for >=1 hour tomorrow?
Will this market get more than 10 traders by end of next week?
Will johnswentworth post a new LW post by end of next week?
Will I decide which is clearly better (the empirical side of AI safety or the theoretical side of AI safety) by end of next week?
Will I gain >= 10 mana on lw by end of next week?
Will I post/comment on LW by end of next week?
Will Hack Club Nest (http://hackclub.app/) be back up by end of next week?
Will I make 3 productive hours tomorrow?
Will I spend >=3 hours writing in Obsidian tomorrow?
Will the idea "making a chatbot to generate Framing Practica examples" be done and succeed today?
Will I make 5 productive hours today?
Will I demote to platinum?
Will I spend >=3 hours writing in Obsidian today?
Will I watch YouTube on my pc for >=1 hour today?
100
66
64
51
50
44
43
41
34
19
1
0
1553
644
2027
2026
2028
2025
2029
Other
2030 or later
76
14
3
2
262
80
Intermediate scenario
No such statement before 2030
Optimistic scenario
Pessimistic scenario
56
29
11
4
105
49