EMS News

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

41.15%chance

101120616

OptionVotes

YES

59424

42630

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.43%chance

14057666

OptionVotes

YES

18795

6906

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

16293

6948

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.63%chance

7125412

OptionVotes

YES

15846

5216

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.55%chance

484763

OptionVotes

YES

3780

1858

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.06%chance

82522

OptionVotes

YES

12522

7986

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

In Pluribus, will Carol nuke 'em?

Jan 4, 10:21 AMApr 20, 11:20 AM

25.04%chance

24715

OptionVotes

YES

173

Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?

Oct 28, 6:58 PMOct 4, 6:56 PM

9.93%chance

11706

OptionVotes

YES

301

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

Aug 11, 1:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7270

OptionProbability

As of tweet time Hanson was 50%+ on ems before 2100

The news originated in a for-profit company

It's an achieved breakthrough in em tech/science

Hanson first heard it July or August 2024

It's about ems being easy

It's about AGI being hard

Hanson made it up

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Aug 1, 4:22 PMOct 3, 2:59 PM

42.37%chance

356

OptionVotes

YES

136

Do you use em dashes?

May 12, 6:37 PM

250

EMS News

Prediction markets for EMS

Prediction markets for EMS

Prediction markets for EMS

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

In Pluribus, will Carol nuke 'em?

Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Do you use em dashes?

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