EMS News

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

52.56%chance

7761833

OptionVotes

YES

53508

47064

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

16293

6948

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.18%chance

13746687

OptionVotes

YES

13320

9842

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.32%chance

6221652

OptionVotes

YES

13081

6829

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

35.03%chance

55068

OptionVotes

YES

13618

7343

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.55%chance

484763

OptionVotes

YES

3780

1858

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

YES

11500

8696

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

In Pluribus, will Carol nuke 'em?

Jan 4, 10:21 AMApr 20, 11:20 AM

15.49%chance

19638

OptionVotes

YES

234

Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?

Oct 28, 6:58 PMOct 4, 6:56 PM

9%chance

8632

OptionVotes

YES

318

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

Aug 11, 1:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6269

OptionProbability

As of tweet time Hanson was 50%+ on ems before 2100

The news originated in a for-profit company

It's an achieved breakthrough in em tech/science

Hanson first heard it July or August 2024

It's about ems being easy

It's about AGI being hard

Hanson made it up

Do you use em dashes?

May 12, 6:37 PM

250

EMS News

Prediction markets for EMS

Prediction markets for EMS

Prediction markets for EMS

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

In Pluribus, will Carol nuke 'em?

Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

Do you use em dashes?

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