EMS News

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

16624

6806

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.74%chance

13644436

OptionVotes

YES

12658

10372

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

May 11, 9:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.03%chance

4126029

OptionVotes

YES

12542

9333

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.87%chance

2018239

OptionVotes

YES

25876

2236

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53%chance

458657

OptionVotes

YES

10942

8778

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.55%chance

484763

OptionVotes

YES

3780

1858

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

Sep 15, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

61500

OptionVotes

YES

11500

8696

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

10313

9761

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

Aug 11, 1:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6269

OptionProbability

As of tweet time Hanson was 50%+ on ems before 2100

The news originated in a for-profit company

It's an achieved breakthrough in em tech/science

Hanson first heard it July or August 2024

It's about ems being easy

It's about AGI being hard

Hanson made it up

Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?

Oct 28, 6:58 PMOct 4, 6:56 PM

56.64%chance

285

OptionVotes

YES

114

Do you use em dashes?

May 12, 6:37 PM

240

EMS News

Prediction markets for EMS

Prediction markets for EMS

Prediction markets for EMS

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Will U.S. employment in Diagonistic Imaging Centers (proxy for radiologists) go below 2022 levels by 2034?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

Lula vencerá as eleicões presidenciais em 4 de Outubro de 2026?

Do you use em dashes?

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