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Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.39%chance

18591740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1690

319

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25099

3984

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.47%chance

10016704

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

636

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

3.01%chance

5512423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8856

317

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.57%chance

5212004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8319

3970

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?

Jun 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.73%chance

121336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1502

666

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.09%chance

141245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

Will Texas enact a law restricting HRT access for transgender adults before 2032?

Mar 19, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.65%chance

13436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2598

2411

Will the JAWBONE Act be enacted into law in the 119th Congress?

Jun 11, 10:12 PMJan 3, 11:59 AM

49.52%chance

4223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?

Jun 30, 1:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.69%chance

10109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

989

If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will Congress enact a federal abortion-rights law before Jan 20, 2033?

Oct 7, 2:53 AMJan 20, 5:00 PM

1%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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