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Prediction markets for ENA

Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.39%chance

18591740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1690

319

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.31%chance

9716171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1494

589

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.21%chance

388547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5184

5054

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

7.49%chance

517972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5305

495

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

175742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15357

6512

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.55%chance

261430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

776

Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?

Jun 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.22%chance

111187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1595

627

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

27.89%chance

15936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

1047

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.95%chance

13894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

924

Will Texas enact a law restricting HRT access for transgender adults before 2032?

Mar 19, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.65%chance

13436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will the JAWBONE Act be enacted into law in the 119th Congress?

Jun 11, 10:12 PMJan 3, 11:59 AM

45.02%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

905

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