DeepNewz, mobile.

People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.

Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story detail view.

Screenshot of DeepNewz app showing story list view.

End News

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

23.49%chance

18021021808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17864

9273

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.05%chance

941600472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11197

8835

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

127565977

OptionProbability

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

34

32

9

7

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25141

17457

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?

Jun 22, 11:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.22%chance

531364441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2894

445

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25.49%chance

487136564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2621

2254

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.22%chance

441121733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3797

2487

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

71%chance

227113703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1565

639

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22945

4656

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.67%chance

9243679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

916

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.92%chance

113578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13205

7968

Latest stories