End of Watch News

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

94.31%chance

9025606

OptionVotes

YES

3919

917

🚘 Will Apple announce the launch of a car by 2030?

Jan 2, 8:09 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

8.39%chance

13416553

OptionVotes

YES

3847

645

Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?

Jul 31, 6:14 PMAug 30, 5:48 PM

41%chance

15015633

OptionVotes

YES

1261

679

By the end of 2025, there will be an Apple Watch that has a glucose sensor

Feb 13, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.66%chance

166449

OptionVotes

YES

6050

165

Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?

Jul 1, 7:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

273564

OptionVotes

YES

3000

333

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

1194

838

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

Aug 3, 11:25 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

27.34%chance

221255

OptionVotes

YES

1157

913

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

1096

933

Will Better Watch Out get a sequel (before the end of 2025)?

Sep 21, 6:32 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

22.17%chance

10239

OptionVotes

YES

375

129

What will I believe is the most important publicly available video on the internet at the end of 2025?

Mar 31, 1:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3126

OptionProbability

Jamie Joyce on Win Win - https://youtu.be/HzxW3a9jAxE?si=qc_WKI3SMHQ_Cuox

Harald Malmgen's last interview - https://youtu.be/09KP8XVf5nY?si=cha9AxnZ_tgddbH1

Daniel Sheehan's full lecture on JFK - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVza7sesLJh44w4o6Z6gNqtgU4bea5PqP&si=_Ukh8ikh1A-xGlqv

Daniel Sheehan's full lecture on the Trajectory of Justice - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVza7sesLJh5EM3OE4417e3yiTyndRR6a&si=ndk8qQ3axlNWvED1

Daniel Sheehan's full lecture on the Rulers of the Realm - https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLVza7sesLJh5ZR8exn0lKoCjC3ayShvdd&si=4Qq2X8VSd3qOV-2H

Museum of Tarot - https://youtu.be/I7CPUNSlXKs?si=Kbw_GPsG0W-9i7TZ

Ben Goertzle on AGI - https://youtu.be/I0bsd-4TWZE?si=jJAZv3hIg0-6_XaK

Catherine Fitts - https://youtu.be/piDqTbBwWRM?si=U4bp7-nQ5mP-cSvI

Nate Soares warning the world - https://youtu.be/3Sn0stHiNh4?si=YLfGAHOC6X73quUh

Jesse Michels on Rogan - https://youtu.be/r9Ldl70x5Fg?si=H9llQUlsdfUgSsTA

Other

Dan Faggela and Michael Levin - https://youtu.be/DmKafur28S8?si=hR_k_GQR2s69-GUl

Curt Jaimungal and Leonard Susskind - https://youtu.be/2p_Hlm6aCok?si=8vJ91KDxMa_rS7Kj

Robert Epstein on Rogan - https://youtu.be/Azu8XnZdxeA?si=JNHKPyLbbFZhKCX_

Chris Ramsey and Chris Bledsoe - https://youtu.be/vQqErgnc_3g?si=2GCO4l28iuXz0RYv

Foom Debate - https://youtu.be/m_R5Z4_khNw?si=i1LoqsAZsi8e5BJE

Emergence with Danny Hillis - https://youtu.be/4Bm6A_BxMgU?si=OPnsbVIf4FHmg-D-

Futarchy with Robin Hanson - https://youtu.be/PRog7R37MA0?si=D94xQFDRci-ZlbkH

Buga Sphere Press Conference - https://youtu.be/Glu2mjX0cnI?si=G4sV1AEeqBHNBaJ2

Adam M. Curry - https://youtu.be/RvPPk28kw4U?si=iE01rljcdMfq8Yw5

Suchir Balaji’s mother - https://youtu.be/Kev_-HyuI9Y?si=StvA3KLr7tu0DCRP

Daniel Hillis - https://youtu.be/k8mX_prIllI?si=w5CM825HuONG8Fgp

Balaji Srinivasan talking about NS - https://youtu.be/sdALxUub5Eo?si=vjchl6-XoQjrjPZL

Terence McKenna - https://youtu.be/j0j6aI764OQ?si=RWMpK0o-LqA2bwYs

Balaji and Vitalik - https://youtu.be/43sSweq86ZA?si=NA5fbBrMS-IJAnVS

Gavin McInnes on Danny Jones - https://youtu.be/vj7R0nNLBkk?si=Kc8sk29qsI5tzsar

Joe McMoneagle - https://youtu.be/SvpkfMGgUGI?si=c6pNdp9QYaSXuOrE

Lei on Danny Jones - https://youtu.be/m2m7_Iqd5to?si=SvUOkrs5oRCQ9gLM

Charles Hoskinson on Shawn Ryan - https://youtu.be/_DZgdAUGXug?si=5-PX3SObOXMIihZq

Robert Salas on Jesse Michels- https://youtu.be/-0g3lLGxNfc?si=PlR4bWjM0vX8M0gW

John Kiriakou on Danny Jones - https://youtu.be/HStqERfZbPw?si=xzwrtzF-G_il9oU9

Danny Jones on Rogan - https://youtu.be/89IEFOiW-Z0?si=SKQ9ZsKQGUCTISSt

Balaji’s Network State Conference https://youtu.be/VqIJI8fW4PI?si=T_GKH0rG2xZPSp3Z

Daniel Sheehan Disclosing Aliens at Yale https://youtu.be/T7ghLflxPs8?si=-WBNIDT9bMa2GbCP

Eliezer Yudkowsky warning the world. https://youtu.be/Yd0yQ9yxSYY?si=8aodS25PDsnLVZAo

Jack Kruse warning the world. https://youtu.be/TcbuqQd57rY?si=js0glFwJlINCmW9S

The Sol Forum - https://www.youtube.com/live/wRkz4jqwIgw?si=OMq511GjyLJ3Gbi7

Steven Greer warning the world - https://youtu.be/areO7Mej44E?si=l1ijhgQYP2cTfWIL

Major racquet sports tourney uses robot servers

Apr 29, 9:01 AMJun 30, 8:47 AM

51.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

1030

971

Will a Japanese emperor watch an MLB game again by end 2041

Sep 30, 8:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.3%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

140

End of Watch News

Prediction markets for End of Watch

Prediction markets for End of Watch

Prediction markets for End of Watch

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

🚘 Will Apple announce the launch of a car by 2030?

Will I support Israel (Yes) or Palestine (No) after talking to Manifold?

By the end of 2025, there will be an Apple Watch that has a glucose sensor

Will Trump repeatedly raise concerns about existential risk from AI before the end of 2025?

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028?

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Will Better Watch Out get a sequel (before the end of 2025)?

What will I believe is the most important publicly available video on the internet at the end of 2025?

Major racquet sports tourney uses robot servers

Will a Japanese emperor watch an MLB game again by end 2041

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