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Prediction markets for Endangered

Will humans be an endangered species by 2100?

Apr 21, 8:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.13%chance

145257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

976

602

Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?

Apr 25, 11:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

243997

OptionProbability

European hamster (Cricetus cricetus)

Kākāpō (Strigops habroptila)

Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana)

California condor (Gymnogyps californianus)

Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii)

African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)

Great hammerhead (Sphyrna mokarran)

Black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis)

Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla)

Ammonite Snail (Helenoconcha relicta)

Hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata)

Rusty patched bumble bee (Bombus affinis)

Jellyfish tree (Medusagyne oppositifolia)

Peacock tarantula (Poecilotheria metallica)

Santiago Island giant tortoise (Chelonoidis niger darwini)

Great green macaw (Ara ambiguus)

Pernambuco pygmy owl (Glaucidium mooreorum)

Angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Dromedary naiad (Dromus dromas)

Sri Lankan relict ant (Aneuretus simoni)

Seychelles forest scorpion (Lychas braueri)

Nike's squeaker (Arthroleptis nikeae)

David's tiger (Parantica davidi)

Vaquita (Phocoena sinus)

95

90

86

85

80

77

77

72

69

69

67

61

58

58

57

57

57

57

57

57

57

47

31

10

Will humans be an endangered species by 2400?

Aug 3, 4:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.19%chance

62768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

487

Will humans be an endangered species by 2300?

Aug 2, 1:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.87%chance

21500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2492

401

Will humans be an endangered species by 2200?

Jul 31, 2:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.24%chance

71130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

472

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Next Red List Assessment?

Dec 5, 2:41 PMAug 31, 9:59 PM

4562

OptionProbability

Critically Endangered

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Other

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

Not Evaluated

Endangered

Extinct in the Wild

New Conservation Status

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Data Deficient

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Vulnerable

Extinct

49

10

10

9

5

4

4

3

3

1

1

1

1

1

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Tiger (Panthera tigris) in Its Next Red List Assessment?

Jan 14, 12:10 PMDec 15, 10:59 PM

6215

OptionProbability

Endangered

Vulnerable

Critically Endangered

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

Extinct in the Wild

Extinct

Data Deficient

Not Evaluated

New Conservation Status

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Other

58

18

14

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?

Aug 5, 5:50 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

17.31%chance

7193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

Will the IUCN reasses the javan tiger from “ Extinct” to “Critically endangered” when tigers are next reassesed?

Mar 25, 12:16 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

37.42%chance

3193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

110

Will humans be an endangered species by 2500?

Aug 5, 11:43 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.01%chance

3150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Will humans be an endangered species by 2700?

Aug 6, 2:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.24%chance

3143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

53

Which endangered natural language would you most want to learn as part of language revival?

Jul 19, 4:34 PM

170

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