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Prediction markets for Endangered

Will humans be an endangered species by 2100?

Apr 21, 8:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.13%chance

145257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

976

602

Which of these IUCN critically endangered ("Red List") species will still be extant in 2040?

Apr 25, 11:29 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

243997

OptionProbability

European hamster (Cricetus cricetus)

Kākāpō (Strigops habroptila)

Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana)

California condor (Gymnogyps californianus)

Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii)

African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)

Great hammerhead (Sphyrna mokarran)

Black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis)

Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla)

Ammonite Snail (Helenoconcha relicta)

Hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata)

Rusty patched bumble bee (Bombus affinis)

Jellyfish tree (Medusagyne oppositifolia)

Peacock tarantula (Poecilotheria metallica)

Santiago Island giant tortoise (Chelonoidis niger darwini)

Great green macaw (Ara ambiguus)

Pernambuco pygmy owl (Glaucidium mooreorum)

Angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Dromedary naiad (Dromus dromas)

Sri Lankan relict ant (Aneuretus simoni)

Seychelles forest scorpion (Lychas braueri)

Nike's squeaker (Arthroleptis nikeae)

David's tiger (Parantica davidi)

Vaquita (Phocoena sinus)

95

90

86

85

80

77

77

72

69

69

67

61

58

58

57

57

57

57

57

57

57

47

31

10

Will humans be an endangered species by 2400?

Aug 3, 4:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.89%chance

51918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

832

Will humans be an endangered species by 2300?

Aug 2, 1:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.78%chance

2750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

574

Will humans be an endangered species by 2200?

Jul 31, 2:36 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.55%chance

6452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1439

695

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Tiger (Panthera tigris) in Its Next Red List Assessment?

Jan 14, 12:10 PMDec 15, 10:59 PM

6215

OptionProbability

Endangered

Vulnerable

Critically Endangered

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

Extinct in the Wild

Extinct

Data Deficient

Not Evaluated

New Conservation Status

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Other

58

18

14

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the IUCN reasses the javan tiger from “ Extinct” to “Critically endangered” when tigers are next reassesed?

Mar 25, 12:16 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

37.42%chance

3193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

110

What Conservation Status Will the IUCN Assign to the Eastern Gorilla (Gorilla beringei) in Its Red List in 2050?

Dec 6, 11:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3140

OptionProbability

Endangered

Critically Endangered

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

Other

New Conservation Status

Not Evaluated

Extinct in the Wild

Least Concern

Near Threatened

Vulnerable

Extinct

Data Deficient

29

24

14

7

6

6

5

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will humans be an endangered species by 2500?

Aug 5, 11:43 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.37%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?

Aug 5, 5:50 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.89%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

72

Will humans be an endangered species by 2700?

Aug 6, 2:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Which endangered natural language would you most want to learn as part of language revival?

Jul 19, 4:34 PM

170

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