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Prediction markets for Endgame

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

203767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

952

838

Will a movie grossing >$3B be released by 2028?

Jan 23, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.58%chance

393425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

713

will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026}

Feb 3, 7:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.75%chance

142602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2881

347

What will be the next highest-grossing film?

Jan 27, 5:38 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

171643

OptionProbability

Other

Avengers: Secret Wars

Avengers: Doomsday

Avatar: The Way of Water

Avengers: Endgame

Avengers: The Kang Dynasty

Avatar: Fire and Ash

84

10

5

1

1

0

0

How well will I do in puzzlehunts held in 2026? (See description)

Jan 27, 8:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3379

OptionProbability

Princeton Puzzle Hunt

CMU Hunt Spring 2026

CMU Hunt Fall 2026

Cruzzle Hunt: The Specter of the Show

Alex Irpan's Enigmarch Hunt

Brown Puzzle Hunt

[DON'T BET, WILL N/A AT END OF 2026]

95

66

66

55

55

30

1

Will I reach 2000 elo on chess.com by eoy 2026?

Apr 21, 12:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14%chance

8274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

More Avatar movies vs more Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T before end of 2030?

Dec 17, 8:20 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6181

OptionProbability

More Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T

More Avatar movies in Top 10 WW A-T

Other

63

28

8

What will be the runtime of Avengers: Doomsday

Jan 10, 5:23 AMDec 20, 1:00 AM

7100

OptionProbability

180 - 194

165 - 179

Above 225

150 - 164

Below 150

195 - 209

210 - 225

34

26

19

9

4

4

4

How many white-to-move positions are required to prove this endgame a draw?

Aug 6, 12:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

274

OptionProbability

< 10^9

< 10^7

< 10^5

< 10^3

66

50

34

9

Will the next full-length film featuring Paul Rudd as Ant Man be better than I expect it to be?

Feb 11, 1:12 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

89

[FUTARCHY MARRIAGE] who would I have the highest impact kids with?

Oct 16, 8:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Other

50

How does the news about Claude 4 using tool use to narc on its user change your AI endgame predictions?

May 22, 10:18 PM

110

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