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Prediction markets for Endgame

Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies?

Aug 25, 3:08 AMDec 31, 6:53 PM

2712989

OptionProbability

The Man Who Killed Don Quioxte

Brazil

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Mr. Nobody

Welcome to the N-H-K

The Assessment

Revlover

The Congress (2013)

Lurker

Code 3

Masthishka Maranam

The Artist

The French Dispatch

The Fountain

The Square

Cosmopolis

Swiss Army Man

Cloud Atlas

Southland Tales

Fitzcarraldo

The Grand Budapest Hotel

62

61

60

54

53

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

49

48

47

46

43

43

40

0

Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?

Jan 23, 9:08 PMJan 24, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

203767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

952

838

Will a movie grossing >$3B be released by 2028?

Jan 23, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.11%chance

393550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

832

will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026}

Feb 3, 7:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.15%chance

153077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3356

298

What will be the next highest-grossing film?

Jan 27, 5:38 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

191663

OptionProbability

Other

Avengers: Endgame

Avengers: Secret Wars

Avengers: Doomsday

Avatar: The Way of Water

Avengers: The Kang Dynasty

Avatar: Fire and Ash

79

11

5

4

1

0

0

Will I reach 2000 elo on chess.com by eoy 2026?

Apr 21, 12:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.52%chance

111090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

379

26

Will the re-release of Avenger Endgame Surpass the box office of Supergirl?

Sep 9, 9:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.47%chance

12914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1854

539

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avengers: Endgame"? (>$2.8B worldwide)

Aug 29, 1:36 AMMar 1, 5:59 AM

5.34%chance

5354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

421

24

More Avatar movies vs more Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T before end of 2030?

Dec 17, 8:20 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

7220

OptionProbability

More Avengers movies in Top 10 WW A-T

More Avatar movies in Top 10 WW A-T

Other

79

15

5

How many white-to-move positions are required to prove this endgame a draw?

Aug 6, 12:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

274

OptionProbability

< 10^9

< 10^7

< 10^5

< 10^3

66

50

34

9

Will the next full-length film featuring Paul Rudd as Ant Man be better than I expect it to be?

Feb 11, 1:12 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

89

How does the news about Claude 4 using tool use to narc on its user change your AI endgame predictions?

May 22, 10:18 PM

110

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